Sean Barnard previews Wednesday’s WNBA matchup between the Connecticut Sun and the Portland Fire and provides his best pick.
In the late slate of tonight’s five-game WNBA slate, the Portland Fire will take on the Connecticut Sun. This is the second matchup between these two teams already this season. Portland picked up a narrow 83-82 victory in the first matchup between these two sides, which took place on May 18th.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Fire enter as 6.5-point favorites and hold -228 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun hold +195 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 166.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Sun at Fire matchup.
It has been a tough start to the season for the Connecticut Sun. After finishing with the third-worst record in the WNBA last season, Connecticut is off to a 1-7 start to this year. Their lone win came against the Seattle Storm in an 80-78 win by the Sun. On the season, Connecticut has gone 3-5 against the spread, and the game total is 4-4 to the over/under.
Brittney Griner will be sidelined for tonight’s matchup due to a right rib strain. Griner leads the team with 15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game across the three games she has been active for. Aneesah Morrow adds 11.3 points and 9.3 rebounds, while Aaliyah Edwards pitches in 9.6 points and 4.2 rebounds. Diamond Miller, Hailey Van Lith, Charlisse Leger-Walker, and Kennedy Burke also play key roles.
As a team, the Sun are scoring 76.4 points per game, which ranks last in the league. Connecticut also ranks last in offensive rating, 14th in field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 91.1 points per game against the Sun, which ranks 14th in the league. They also rank 13th in defensive rating, 14th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 13th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
In their first season back in the WNBA, the Portland Fire are off to a 4-3 start to the year. Their four wins have come against the Liberty, Sun, and Tempo, while they have come up short against the Liberty twice, the Sky and the Fever. Through its first six games, Portland has gone 3-4 against the spread, and the game total is 4-3 to the over/under.
Bridget Carleton and Carla Leite headline the production for the Fire, each averaging 15.8 points per game. Sug Sutton adds 11.3 points and a team-high 5.7 assists per game, while Sarah Ashlee Barker, Karlie Samuelson, and Megan Gustafson also play key roles. Nine players on the roster have one or fewer seasons of experience, making this one of the youngest rosters in the league. Julie Allemand, Temi Fagbenle, and Isabelle Harrison will each be sidelined tonight.
Through their first seven games, the Fire are scoring 85.6 points per game, which ranks 10th in the WNBA. They also rank 10th in offensive rating and fifth in both three-point volume and efficiency. Defensively, opponents are scoring 88.6 points per game against Portland, which ranks 11th in the league. Portland also ranks 12th in defensive rating.
The Fire pulled out a narrow 83-82 victory in the first matchup between these two sides. Neither team took a lead by more than seven throughout.
Not having Brittney Griner for tonight’s matchup is a big deal for the Sun. She led the team with 16 points in the first matchup between these two teams, with Portland being weak at defending the interior. The Fire rank 11th in the WNBA in opponents’ field goal percentage and 13th in opponents’ two-point percentage. Without Griner on the floor, expect Connecticut to struggle to expose this at the same rate.
Don’t expect either of these teams to be particularly close to the conversation for the best team in the WNBA as the standings begin to settle. But the holes on this Connecticut roster are more significant than the youthful Portland squad. The Fire play with a more inspiring effort level and are a notch better on both sides of the ball. Connecticut is posting the second-worst scoring rate and ranking dead last in opponents’ points allowed, makes it difficult to find a pathway to win basketball games.
Expect Portland to continue riding the momentum of their back-to-back wins, especially a really impressive victory over the Liberty in the previous game. This young squad is beginning to find its identity, and this is a matchup where they will have plenty of margin for error. Expect the Sun to have no answer for their scoring pace, and for this game to get gradually out of hand as the Fire covers the 6.5-point spread.
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