Wednesday brings us the first final group-stage day of the 2026 World Cup. Groups A, B, and C will all be settled on Wednesday, one way or another. I’m here to break down all the knockout clinching scenarios for all six games. Let’s get into it.

Group B, 3:00 p.m. ET

Switzerland (1-1-0, +3 GD) vs. Canada (1-1-0, +6 GD)

• Both Switzerland and Canada win the group with a victory.
• If the two teams draw, Canada finishes first in the group, and Switzerland finishes second.
• If Switzerland wins, and Bosnia and Herzegovina beats Qatar, Canada could lose the second spot in the group on goal difference if Bosnia can overcome the nine-goal gap.
• If Canada wins and Qatar beats Bosnia and Herzegovina, Switzerland can be bumped down to third if Qatar can overcome the nine-goal gap.

Bosnia (0-1-1, -3 GD) vs. Qatar (0-1-1, -6 GD)

• Both teams can only be sure to advance with a win. The loser will be eliminated, and a draw gives them less than a 4% chance of advancing as a third-place team.
• If Bosnia and Herzegovina wins and Switzerland beats Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina can jump into second place in the group by closing the nine-goal gap in goal difference.
• If Qatar wins and Canada beats Switzerland, Qatar can jump into second place in the group by closing the nine-goal gap in goal difference.
• If Switzerland and Canada draw in their match, neither Qatar nor Bosnia and Herzegovina can finish higher than third.

Group C, 6:00 p.m. ET

Morocco (1-1-0, +1 GD) vs. Haiti (0-0-2, -4 GD)

• Haiti has already been eliminated from the knockout stages.
• Morocco wins the group with a win and a Brazil draw/loss against Scotland, or a draw and a Brazil loss.
• Morocco finishes second in the group if they draw and Brazil wins, or if Morocco loses and Brazil draws Scotland.
• If Brazil and Morocco both win, Morocco must outscore Brazil by 3 goals to win the group; otherwise, they finish second.
• If Morocco loses and Scotland beats Brazil, Morocco may fall to third depending on goal difference.

Scotland (1-0-1, +0 GD) vs. Brazil (1-1-0, +3 GD)

• Brazil wins Group C with a win vs. Scotland and a Morocco loss or draw against Haiti.
• Brazil wins Group C with a draw vs. Scotland and a Morocco loss or draw against Haiti.
• If Brazil and Morocco both win, Brazil has a two-goal edge on goal difference.
• If Brazil and Scotland draw while Morocco wins, Brazil finishes second, and Scotland finishes third.
• If Brazil and Scotland draw while Morocco loses, Brazil finishes top of the group and Morocco finishes second over Scotland on head-to-head record. Scotland would have a >99% chance of qualifying as the third seed with four points and an even goal differential.
• If Scotland wins and Morocco draws or loses, Scotland wins the group, and Brazil finishes second or third, depending on Morocco’s result.
• If Scotland loses by one goal, they have a 94% chance of qualifying as the third seed. That goes to 83%, 67%, 54%, 41%, and 32% with each additional goal Brazil wins by.

Group A, 9:00 p.m. ET

Mexico (2-0-0, +3 GD) vs. Czechia (0-1-1, -1 GD)

• Mexico has already clinched Group A, and this result doesn’t affect their spot in the Round of 32.
• If Czechia wins and South Korea beats or draws South Africa, Czechia will secure the third spot in the group with a >99% chance of advancing to the Round of 32.
• If Czechia wins and South Africa beats South Korea, Czechia needs to win by an equal number of goals as South Africa to get the second spot in the group; if they are behind on goal difference after those wins, Czechia would finish third with a >99% chance of advancing to the Round of 32.
• If Mexico wins or draws, Czechia will be eliminated.

South Korea (1-0-1, +0 GD) vs. South Africa (0-1-1, -2 GD)

• If South Korea wins or draws, it will clinch the second spot in the group and move on to the Round of 32.
• If South Africa wins and Mexico beats or draws Czechia, South Africa clinches the second spot in the group.
• If South Africa wins and Czechia beats Mexico by the same number of goals that South Africa wins by, South Africa finishes third in the group with a >99% chance of advancing to the Round of 32.
• If South Africa and Czechia win and South Africa wins by one more goal, the tiebreaker for the second spot is decided by the total number of yellow cards, with the team with fewer winning.
• If South Africa and Czechia win and South Africa wins by two or more goals than Czechia, they will clinch the second spot in the group.