If Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was a movie, tonight should be pure cinema. We get to utter the two best words in sports — Game 7.

The San Antonio Spurs kept their season alive with a win on their home court last time out, forcing this pivotal win-or-go-home matchup against the reigning champions. The action shifts back to the Oklahoma City Thunder’s place on Saturday night, and given how the rest of the series has shaken out, anything can happen.

Here’s a Spurs vs. Thunder prediction and pick for Game 7 of the NBA Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spurs vs. Thunder prediction, preview

This has truly been a back-and-forth series. The Spurs took Game 1 before dropping a pair, then the two teams have alternated wins over the last three outings. While most were close at various stages, all six games have been decided by a minimum of seven points, with four of the six ending with a double-digit margin. Perhaps things haven’t been as close as it feels, but tonight should be a hard-fought war of attrition.

First thing first, the Thunder will be without Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (soleus) once again in tonight’s contest. Perhaps if one or the other were healthy, these teams wouldn’t even be taking the floor tonight. Williams, a former All-Star, averaged 17.1 points. 4.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game during the regular season. His all-around production and ability to pressure the rim has certainly been missed. Mitchell has been excellent in the seven games Williams has missed this postseason, bringing 18.4 PPG in that sample. Oklahoma City is just 12-10 in 22 games without both players this season, including 1-1 in two playoff games in which both were inactive.

That doesn’t mean the Thunder are doomed by any means, though. They’re still a very capable team and are reigning champs for a reason, having proven capable of handling pressure-cooker scenarios like this one. However, they’ve been held to two of their lowest scoring totals of the season — 82 and 91 points — in two of their last three games, both of which were losses. The Spurs’ defense appears formidable, and they’ve clearly bothered Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will have to carry the team tonight. He’s averaging only 24.3 PPG in this series on an abysmal shooting split of 37.9% overall and 26.1% from deep, putting forth a TS% of just 52.2%. His play at home has been notably worse than on the road this year as well, with his TS% at 69.6% in the away split vs. 64.2% in Oklahoma City. His team will go as he goes tonight.

One other trend to watch is that the team that wins the rebounding battle has won five-of-six games in this series. Chet Holmgren has been noticeably more engaged on the glass over the last few games, while Victor Wembanyama’s rebounding output has somewhat stalled after pulling down 41 boards across the first two outings. The Thunder are averaging 44.8 rebounds in this series to 48.0 for the Spurs, so the battle on the glass will prove crucial in this one, especially if San Antonio is to escape with an NBA Finals berth.

Spurs vs. Thunder pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are a -3.5 favorite with -155 odds on the Moneyline. The Spurs hold +130 odds of an outright win with the game total set at 212.5 points.

Betting splits show 61% of straight wagers on San Antonio and 52% on the Spurs to cover the +3.5 spread.

Picking a winner in each game of this series feels practically impossible given how tight the margins are. These teams match up incredibly well between the size in both frontcourts and the dynamic talents in the backcourts, plus the litany of high-end role players throughout each rotation. We’ve seen the first half of most of these games be competitive, and it’s incredibly hard to rule Oklahoma City out in particular given the way the playoff-proven squad has an ability to rally back from a deficit. The two games of low scoring outputs in recent days are a little bit concerning, but they feel more like outliers than anything else.

It’s worth noting that the game total ticked down a staggering seven points from Game 6’s 219.5 mark. Now at just 212.5, the over feels extremely intriguing. Granted, the sum of free throws for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in particular can pad the total a bit or result in it going under, but at a much lower line, the over feels like a smash pick tonight. Here’s why.

Across the six games of this series, the combined totals have come out to 241, 185, 231, 235, 237 and 209 points. That means the over on 209.5 has cashed in four-of-six games, narrowly missing last time out as well. The average combined total also sits at 223 PPG, which blasts past tonight’s line. Dating back to the regular season for a larger sample size between these teams, the over on 209.5 has cashed in nine of 11 total matchups. They combined for an average of 223.6 PPG in those five regular-season meetings.

To tack on just a little boost of confidence, the home/road splits in this postseason also support more scoring tonight. The Thunder average 119.4 PPG at home across seven home games in these NBA Playoffs (113.4 PPG on the road). The Spurs average 118.3 PPG in eight away games, also the better of their home/road splits (113.1 PPG in San Antonio). With the line on the game total dropped considerably from the last outing and the remainder of the numbers largely supporting a higher-scoring outing, the stars have aligned for the over to cash in tonight’s Game 7.

Best Bet: Over 212.5 (-110)