James Harden tasted playoff success early in his career, making the Western Conference Finals in his second season and the NBA Finals in his third season as the third fiddle behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Then, in 2014-15 and 2017-18, Harden made it to the conference finals with the Houston Rockets. Since then, though, it’s been disappointment after disappointment for the Beard, who’s lost in the first round twice and the conference semifinals five times since.

Now on his sixth team of his career, Harden finds himself in a must-win situation at 7:10 p.m. ET tonight when the Cleveland Cavaliers play Game 2 of the conference semifinals against the Detroit Pistons on the road. Coincidentally, 2017-18 was also the last time the Cavaliers advanced that far, when they were led by LeBron James.

Cleveland is a 3.5-point underdog for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set to 215.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bet centered around The Beard.

Best James Harden Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook

James Harden 1+ Blocks (+101)

Harden isn’t exactly known for his defense, but given how inconsistent his offensive performances have been throughout these playoffs, his defensive props might actually be a safer play. He had a passive Game 7 effort against the Toronto Raptors in the first round, attempting only nine shots and scoring 18 points, but he made his impact felt with three steals, directly resulting in four points for the Cavaliers. He followed it up with one steal and two blocks in Game 1, his fifth game these playoffs with at least one block. Harden actually ranks in the 97th percentile in rim contests per 100 possessions in the postseason, which is both a function of the Raptors’ and Pistons’ willingness to challenge him and his willingness to try.

To its credit, Detroit sticks to its game plan of attacking the rim, even at the risk of turning it over or getting blocked. The Pistons ranked eighth-to-last in opponent steals and second-to-last in opponent blocks per game during the regular season, but it’s hard to argue with the results, given that they finished with the ninth-best offense and scored the most points in the paint. So far these playoffs, Detroit ranks seventh in shots per game within five feet, attempting just 3.3 fewer per game than Toronto did in the first round, and it’s been blocked the fifth-most times per game. In Game 1, Cleveland mostly had Harden guard Tobias Harris, who was blocked at an above-average rate (74th of 224 players to appear in at least 60 games).