Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros.
After nine seasons in Houston, Framber Valdez is now a member of the Tigers (30-42). So far, it’s been a difficult campaign for the left-hander and his new club. On Tuesday, he’ll get to face off with his former employers at Daikin Park. The Astros (33-41) are mired in mediocrity as well, but they’re only 4.5 games out of first place in the AL West.
The Astros are favorites (-184) over the Tigers, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Detroit and Houston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
As far as pitching matchups go, there’s intrigue for both sides this evening. For the visitors, Valdez will make his much-anticipated return to Houston. Through 77.2 innings of work this season (14 starts), the southpaw has recorded a 4.40 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 61 strikeouts (7.1 K/9). The best term to describe the veteran’s 2026 campaign is volatile; you never know which version of Framber you’re getting on any given night. He’s allowed four earned runs in three of his last five outings. However, the two-time All-Star has allowed two earned runs or less on nine occasions.
A look under the hood doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Valdez. He places inside the 30th percentile or lower in xERA (4.61), xBA (.259), average exit velocity (90.1 MPH) and strikeout rate (17.9%). That makes him a difficult pitcher to back tonight against a formidable Houston offense. The Astros have notched a .743 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, sixth-best in baseball. Leading the charge is none other than Yordan Alvarez, a legitimate MVP candidate. The Cuban is slashing .328/.434/.653 to go with an MLB-leading 24 home runs and 173 total bases. Granted, this group is a bit top-heavy; Alvarez is one of four regulars on the active roster with a wRC+ above 100.
For the home team, Hunter Brown will make his much-anticipated return to the mound tonight. The righty enjoyed a fantastic 2025 season, earning his first career All-Star Game selection. However, he injured his shoulder back in March and has been sidelined since. One thing the 27-year-old has always displayed as a professional is elite swing-and-miss ability. Over a five-year career, Brown has accounted for a stellar 10.0 K/9 ratio. In comparison, the Tigers are striking out 8.68 times per game; that’s the seventh-worst mark in baseball.
Granted, Detroit has looked a bit better as of late. The team has won eight of its last 12 games, thanks in part to improved effort on offense. Still, it’s difficult to trust this lineup against a top-end arm such as Brown. After all, the Tigers have scored the fifth-fewest runs per game in baseball on the road (3.97). Last season, Brown pitched to a sparkling 2.30 ERA at Daikin Park. There’s a decent chance Houston keeps its ace on a strict pitch limit. If that were to occur, the team’s relievers might be busier than usual. This bullpen has been a mess for most of 2026. However, the Astros have received a late-inning boost with the recent return of closer Josh Hader (shoulder).
Simply put, Brown is the superior pitcher on Tuesday. Even if he doesn’t go more than five innings, the 27-year-old is one of the American League’s top arms. Coming back at home against a subpar Detroit offense makes for an ideal return. It’s a different story for Valdez, who hasn’t shown consistency in Motown. Alvarez and company have had a knack for clobbering left-handed pitching this season. Don’t be shocked if the ‘Stros do so again tonight against an old friend.
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