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Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins prediction, pick for...
Garion Thorn · 2026-05-01 · via DraftKings Network

Garion Thorne gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Minnesota Twins and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Has the 2026 MLB schedule seemed weird to anyone else?

Take this series as a perfect example. The Jays have yet to play the Yankees, the Rays or the Orioles, but it’s still April and this is the second time they’ll see the Twins? I know the league has lessened divisional games, yet this just feels off.

Anyway, Toronto’s won seven of their last 10 and finally appear to be getting back on track. Conversely, Minnesota’s dropped seven of its last eight. Let’s preview this American League tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Blue Jays vs. Twins prediction, preview

In terms of getting your money’s worth in a free agent contract, you’d be hard pressed to find a better example than Kevin Gausman’s tenure with the Blue Jays. The 35-year-old is now in the midst of year five in Toronto, the final year of his $110 million deal signed back before the 2022 season. Since then, all Gausman’s done is be available and throw quality innings. Heck, dating back to the beginning of that ’22 campaign, Gausman’s 19.1 fWAR ranks as the fourth-highest mark among all starters, trailing only Tarik Skubal, Logan Webb and Zack Wheeler. Not too shabby! He’s still getting it done in the present day, too. Across six outings and 35.0 innings in 2026, Gausman owns a 2.57 ERA and a 2.58 FIP. His 4.3% walk rate is the lowest mark of his career, and his 6.33 K/BB ratio is the highest it’s been since, well, you guessed it — 2022. So long as his splitter is inducing whiffs, Gausman remains one of the sport’s most reliable arms.

The same can not be said about Bailey Ober, who has had a few up and down years in Minnesota. Don’t get me wrong. Ober has the potential to be quite good, as we saw in 2024, when he managed a 3.25 xERA over 178.2 innings of work. However, the 30-year-old’s fastball velocity has slowly ticked down since that season, culminating in a 5.10 ERA in 2025 and some mixed results so far in 2026. The reality of the situation is this: If Ober keeps the ball in the yard, he’s pretty decent. That’s easier said than done for a man with an extreme fly ball profile and a second percentile average fastball velocity (88.8). If Ober misses his spots, you better be paying attention in the outfield seats.

Speaking of, we have to discuss Ober’s recent past with George Springer. Ironically, Springer was only activated off the 10-day IL yesterday for Toronto, as the former All-Star missed multiple weeks with a fractured toe. Needless to say, 2026 hasn’t been the veteran outfielder’s best season. No, that would be 2025. A year when Springer registered 32 home runs and a 166 wRC+ that was the third-highest qualified mark in MLB. Three of those 32 long balls were hit off Ober and all three were absolutely crushed.

The Jays desperately need Springer to get back to this version of himself sooner rather than later. His injury — along with ailments to Addison Barger (ankle), Alejandro Kirk (thumb) and Anthony Santander (shoulder) — has really left Toronto on the outside looking in from a run production standpoint in 2026. The Jays enter this series ranking 25th in ISO (.129), 29th in barrel rate (6.3%) and 29th in expected wOBA (.305). In layman’s terms, this lineup isn’t hitting the ball hard, or over the wall, often enough.

Blue Jays vs. Twins pick, best bet

Best Bet: Under 8 (-118)

First and foremost, Kevin Gausman is quite good. Secondly, these two squads rank 25th and dead-last in expected wOBA over the past two weeks. Runs are often difficult to come by for both the Twins and the Blue Jays.

Strong Lean: George Springer 2+ Total Bases (+114)

Who am I to spit in the face of BvP? Springer took Ober deep three times in 2025. He also picked up a hit in his first at-bat off the IL on Wednesday, so it stands to reason that he’s ready to hit the ground running in his return.