Dan Johnson shares his top player prop bets for today’s MLB slate, including home run, HRRs, and more.
Wednesday’s MLB total bases board belongs to hitters who can win without needing the perfect swing. Wrigley Field brings wind, traffic, and rain anxiety, while West Sacramento offers warm late-window carry without the same weather mess. The sweet spot sits with bats already turning contact into extra bases, hitting high enough to earn four plate appearances, and stepping into matchups where one mistake can cash a ticket.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Rumfield 2+ total bases | +115 | Rumfield carries a .357/.419/.893 last-seven slash, 25 TB, three HR, three 3 K, and a No. 3 Wrigley slot against Javier Assad’s 50.5% hard-hit damage in a 10-total game with 13 mph wind out. |
| Tyler Soderstrom 2+ total bases | +105 | Soderstrom brings an 89.9 mph EV, 44.3% hard-hit rate, 10.9% barrel rate, .422 xSLG, and No. 2 lineup spot into clear 87° Sutter weather against Aaron Civale’s .350 xwOBA allowed. |
| Bryce Eldridge 2+ total bases | +140 | Eldridge owns a .429/.529/.857 last-seven line, 12 TB, two HR, two K, 57.5% hard-hit rate, and No. 3 Truist slot in 83° weather against JR Ritchie’s .338 xwOBA allowed. |
| Ceddanne Rafaela 2+ total bases | +120 | Rafaela has 17 TB, two HR, eight RBI, a 58.2% air rate, and a projected No. 2 Fenway spot against Max Scherzer’s 10.23 ERA, .378 xwOBA allowed, and 13.2% barrel rate allowed. |
| Seiya Suzuki 2+ total bases | +105 | Suzuki gets a cleanup Wrigley spot against lefty Sean Sullivan with 13 mph wind out, carrying a .432 xSLG, .336 xwOBA, 9.3% barrel rate, and .612 SLG against sinkers. |
In-depth analysis below.
Rumfield is the plus-money shot with the cleanest game shape. He is projected third for Colorado at Wrigley, with a 10-run total, 65° weather, and 13 mph wind out. The rain risk keeps this from feeling automatic, but +115 gives enough room for a hitter bringing current damage into the best late outdoor environment. Rumfield’s last seven days produced 10 hits, three homers, seven RBI, six runs, three walks, three strikeouts, and 25 total bases across 31 plate appearances. That is a .357/.419/.893 slash with an absurd 1.312 OPS, and the strikeout count is the quiet separator. His season Statcast profile is modest, with an 85 mph average exit velocity, 33.2% hard-hit rate, 6.3% barrel rate, .358 wOBA, and .324 xwOBA. The bet is buying the surge, lineup spot, and park, rather than pretending he owns a star-level season baseline. Javier Assad gives the angle oxygen. His 3.99 ERA hides contact danger, with 90.9 mph average exit velocity allowed, 50.5% hard-hit allowed, .331 xwOBA allowed, and a low 5% barrel rate allowed.
Soderstrom at +105 is the cleanest late-window total-bases value because the profile does not require a homer. He is projected second for the A’s at Sutter Health Park, batting between Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers in a 10-run total. The weather is almost perfect for a contact-damage prop: 87°, clear, no rain, and 11 mph wind. Soderstrom’s last seven days were steady instead of nuclear, with 6 hits, 5 runs, 1 homer, 3 RBI, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts, and 11 total bases in 25 plate appearances. That keeps the price from carrying the Wood/Yordan tax. The season Statcast line supports the bet anyway: 89.9 mph average exit velocity, 113.2 max EV, 44.3% hard-hit rate, 10.9% barrel rate, .422 xSLG, .351 wOBA, .333 xwOBA, 18.2% K rate, and 12.8% walk rate. He also has 54.7% air contact and a 12.8-degree average launch angle, which gives him gap and wall paths. Aaron Civale brings a 4.20 ERA with louder Statcast danger: 91 mph exit velocity allowed, 47.9% hard-hit allowed, .367 wOBA allowed, .350 xwOBA allowed, and 8.5% barrels allowed. Two bases at +105 plays.
Eldridge is the best number on the sheet. He is projected third for San Francisco at Truist Park, with Luis Arraez ahead of him and Rafael Devers behind him. The game has a 9-to-9.5-run total, 83° weather, 11 mph wind out, and a favorable left-handed damage setting. Eldridge’s recent form has already crossed from prospect shine into usable betting evidence: 6 hits, 2 homers, 6 RBI, 3 runs, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts, and 12 total bases over his last 17 plate appearances. That is a .429/.529/.857 line with a 1.386 OPS and a tiny strikeout footprint. The Statcast backing is loud for this price. Eldridge owns a 92 mph average exit velocity, 57.5% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, 36.3% sweet-spot rate, .410 wOBA, .404 xwOBA, and 14.2-degree average launch angle. He also carries an 86.5% zone-contact rate, so this is not pure whiff-and-pray power. JR Ritchie has a respectable 3.82 ERA, but his .338 xwOBA allowed keeps the door open. His 88.5 mph exit velocity allowed and 5.4% barrel rate say he limits thunder, yet Eldridge’s price already accounts for that. One double pays it.
Rafaela is the uncomfortable bet that makes sense when the market stays above even money. His season Statcast profile is ordinary: 86.9 mph average exit velocity, 37% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, .299 xwOBA, and 10.8-degree average launch angle. That keeps him away from the obvious total-bases crowd. The recent production, lineup spot, and matchup pull him back into play. Rafaela’s last seven days brought 8 hits, 2 homers, 8 RBI, 4 runs, 1 steal, and 17 total bases in 22 plate appearances. That is a .364/.364/.773 slash, with the kind of extra-base burst Fenway can amplify. RotoWire projects him second for Boston against Max Scherzer, with a 9.5-run total, 77° weather, and only 1% precipitation. Scherzer’s name still carries force, but the 2026 contact profile does not: 10.23 ERA, .430 wOBA allowed, .378 xwOBA allowed, 89.2 mph exit velocity allowed, 39.5% hard-hit allowed, and 13.2% barrel rate allowed. Rafaela also owns a 58.2% air rate and 28% line-drive rate this season. At Fenway, that can turn a normal right-handed liner into two bases off the wall.
Suzuki is the board’s stabilizer. He is projected cleanup for the Cubs at Wrigley against lefty Sean Sullivan, with a 10-run total, 13 mph wind out, and a right-handed power slot behind Alex Bregman. The rain risk is annoying, but the price stayed usable because Suzuki’s season line has been good rather than spectacular. Through 245 plate appearances, he has a .256/.343/.433 slash, 10 homers, 8 doubles, 28 RBI, 26 walks, and 65 strikeouts. The Statcast shape still works for 2+ TB: 89.5 mph average exit velocity, 112.9 max EV, 42.4% hard-hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate, .432 xSLG, .339 wOBA, .336 xwOBA, and 37.1% sweet-spot rate. His 18-degree average launch angle also fits a wind-out Wrigley game. The pitch-type split is the sharper hook. Suzuki owns a .612 SLG, .476 wOBA, .455 xwOBA, and 51.3% hard-hit rate against sinkers this season, plus a .491 SLG and 57.9% hard-hit rate against four-seamers. A rookie lefty still has to live in the zone.
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