Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners.
Despite their last place record, the Red Sox (30-43) earned an impressive 6-2 win on the road last night. Boston will hope to earn a series victory on Saturday against the AL West-leading Mariners (39-38). Seattle, despite its middling record, still has legitimate World Series hopes. Bouncing back against a cellar dwelling club would give the M’s a much-needed confidence boost.
The Mariners are favorites (-126) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Boston and Seattle on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If there’s one positive this season for Boston, it’s young pitching. Payton Tolle looks like an ace, but he’s not alone in this talented rotation. Fellow rookie Connelly Early has also impressed, looking the part of a future building block. Through 75.2 innings (14 starts), the southpaw has notched a 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 72 strikeouts (8.6 K/9). All things considered, those are terrific numbers from the 24-year-old. However, he did get rocked for six runs on 11 hits last time out against Texas. Oddly enough, it continues a trend where the youngster has looked much better on the road (2.82 ERA) than at home (4.82 ERA).
Early’s dominance on the road bodes well heading into a matchup at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. To make things even more enticing, the Mariners will be short-handed. Key pieces in Randy Arozarena (hamstring) and Brendan Donovan (groin) are on the injured list. It’s not as if this group has been lighting it up at full strength either. That’s due in large part to the struggles of Cal Raleigh, last season’s AL MVP runner up. As a unit, Seattle is 20th in runs per game (4.18) and 20th in OPS (.705). In addition, the M’s have put up an MLB-worst .626 OPS against left-handed pitching.
On the other side, it’ll be Emerson Hancock taking the hill for Seattle. It’s been a breakout campaign for the 27-year-old, finally living up to his previous top prospect status. Over 79.2 innings pitched (14 starts), he’s recorded a 3.28 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 75 strikeouts (8.5 K/9). Much like Early, the right-hander was hit hard during his most recent outing (4.0 IP, 6 ER). Regardless, it helps when you take the hill half of the time in a spacious venue. If there’s one thing Hancock does particularly well, it’s limiting free passes (1.9 BB/9). There’s a good chance his success continues on Saturday. Boston is averaging 2.86 walks per game, third-fewest in the majors.
If you hadn’t guessed by now, the Red Sox aren’t very good at the plate. In fact, that’s probably giving this group too much credit. They rank within the bottom five clubs in runs scored (288), home runs (62) and slugging percentage (.383). To make matters worse, middle of the order bat Roman Anthony (finger) is on the injured list. Boston has a .682 OPS against righties, fifth-lowest in baseball. Among Red Sox hitters with over 100 plate appearances this season, just three have posted a wRC+ better than 100. Only one, Willson Contreras, has a wRC+ above 115. That’s not going to cut it against most pitchers, let alone an above-average arm such as Hancock.
The Red Sox are an easy fade at the plate in most circumstances; tonight is no exception. However, the same can easily be said for the Mariners in their current injured state. Even if Seattle was at full strength, an inability to hit lefties would be a massive red flag.
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