Dan Johnson shares his top player prop bets for today’s MLB slate, including home run, HRRs, and more.
Memorial Day’s HRR board is better attacked through 3+ ladders than short 2+ prices. The card leans into hitters with premium lineup geography and more than one way to clear the number: CJ Abrams as the plus-money buyback with power, speed and RBI runway; William Contreras as the top-three volume bat in Milwaukee’s best traffic pocket; Freddie Freeman as the Dodgers’ steadier run-environment play; and two late-window A’s bats who get Sacramento air, Luis Castillo’s first look and Bryce Miller looming behind him. This is a card for hits, runs and RBI accumulation—not just one swing.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Abrams is the card’s best ceiling-price play because his season already has the full HRR cocktail: 56 hits, 33 runs, 11 HR, 45 RBI, seven steals, a .289 average, .382 OBP and .918 OPS through 51 games. The recent shape is even more useful for this market: last 30 games: 32 hits, 19 runs, five HR, 26 RBI, 12 walks, two steals and a .522 SLG; last 15: 17 hits, 11 runs, two HR, 11 RBI and a .533 SLG. The Statcast growth gives the number teeth, with a .401 wOBA, .370 xwOBA, 90.1 mph EV, 41.3% hard-hit rate, 11.4% barrel rate and 16.8-degree launch angle. Washington’s posted lineup had Abrams batting cleanup Sunday behind James Wood, Curtis Mead and Andrés Chaparro, which sacrifices a little leadoff plate-appearance volume but gives him maximum RBI runway. One extra-base hit with traffic can do most of the work.
Contreras is the cleanest volume-and-role play. Milwaukee has him batting third against Matthew Liberatore, a lefty listed at 2-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 43 strikeouts, with Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang setting the table and Christian Yelich and Andrew Vaughn behind him. That lineup pocket is perfect for HRR: hits count, RBI chances come early, and a single plus a run plus one run-scoring plate appearance can clear 3+. Contreras’ recent form has been pure category accumulation: he led Milwaukee’s week with 10 hits, slashed .455/.478/.591, hit one HR, drove in three, scored five times and added a steal. His season Statcast page supports the floor more than the raw HR total: .351 wOBA, .355 xwOBA, .359 wOBAcon, .365 xwOBAcon, 90.4 mph average EV, 44.4% hard-hit rate, 29.6% sweet-spot rate and 18.5% whiff rate. This is a catcher with top-three lineup geography, recent contact heat and enough surrounding offense to cash without needing a long ball.
Freeman is the Dodgers exposure that fits HRR best because the lineup context is absurd and his recent production has tilted toward extra bases and on-base events. Los Angeles has him batting third behind Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, with Kyle Tucker, Andy Pages and Teoscar Hernández stacked behind him. The matchup is Tanner Gordon, listed at 0-0 with a 6.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 27.1 innings, 35 hits, 30 strikeouts, six walks and six HR allowed, which gives Freeman RBI paths in the first inning and run paths every time he reaches. He is coming off a loud week: 1.379 OPS, two HR, three doubles and 10 walks as the Dodgers finished a 7-2 road trip. The season line is modest by Freeman standards—.265, six HR, 23 RBI, .810 OPS—but the expected-contact sheet is much stronger: 91.9 mph EV, 47.4% hard-hit rate, 36.2% sweet-spot rate, 11.8% barrel rate, .360 wOBA and .385 xwOBA.
Kurtz is the fourth choice because the Oakland setup gives him real category density, even at a shorter price than the card’s top three. He enters with a .290 average, .448 OBP, .937 OPS, 54 hits, 35 runs, eight HR, 37 RBI and six steals in 186 at-bats, which is exactly why 3+ HRR can cash through a single-plus-run sequence, a double with traffic, a homer, or a multi-hit night. He also extended his on-base streak to 47 games Sunday, passing Rickey Henderson, after tying Henderson’s mark at 46 the night before. The matchup is usable: ESPN lists Luis Castillo vs. Aaron Civale, and FanGraphs’ RosterResource has Castillo as the opposing starter with Bryce Miller as the projected primary pitcher behind him. That can mean multiple right-handed looks, but the A’s already showed the needed traffic Sunday with 10 hits and seven walks in San Diego. Kurtz’s combination of OBP, RBI slot and extra-base power makes +120 playable.
Cortes is the fifth choice and the sharper A’s volume pivot if he leads off again. He started Sunday with his fifth HR, then added a ninth-inning single for his 11th multi-hit game, and his season line has moved into real HRR territory: .350/.430/.553, .983 OPS, 14 extra-base hits, five HR, 17 RBI, 13 runs and one steal across 142 plate appearances. That is not just leadoff slap contact. He has enough power to cash with one swing, enough average to build a two-hit path and enough lineup placement to turn simple on-base events into runs if Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and the middle of the A’s order move behind him. His earlier-season batted-ball snapshot had him at 11.1% barrels with nearly as many walks as strikeouts, which fits HRR better than a pure boom-bust prop. Sacramento’s run environment helps, and Oakland’s Sunday line—10 hits, seven walks—shows the lineup has the traffic to support multiple A’s ladders, though only one should make the core card.
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