After one of the most dramatic first rounds in NBA playoffs history — three Game 7’s only trailed 2014’s five — this second round so far is off to a slow start. Three of the four first-round series are 2-0 affairs, with the higher seed ahead in all three. The only 1-1 series is the West’s 2-6 affair between the San Antonio Spurs and the Minnesota Timberwolves, in which the Timberwolves stole Game 1 and the Spurs responded with a 38-point blowout in Game 2.

In series tied 1-1, the Game 3 winner goes on to win the series more than 70% of the time, so tonight’s 9:40 p.m. ET tipoff will be a must-win affair for both teams.

San Antonio has a completely healthy roster, but Minnesota will have three major players with injury designations: Anthony Edwards (knee) and Ayo Dosunmu (heel) are both questionable, and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles tear) is out.

The Spurs are 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-198 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 216.5. The Timberwolves are +164 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s potential series-shifting affair.

Victor Wembanyama 40+ Points + Rebounds (+100)

Wembanyama has had a pair of pretty quiet offensive games, although for different reasons. In Game 1, he shot the ball horribly, going just five-for-17 (29.4%) from the field and only managing to reach the 10-point threshold with a dunk late in the game. He was much more efficient in Game 2, scoring 14 points on six-for-nine shooting in the first half, but an inefficient third quarter and a lopsided scoreline did him in. Still, he’s been incredibly impactful on the boards, snagging 15 rebounds in each game, and he ended his regular season with five 15-plus-board games in his last seven. Lowering the perceived scoring bar to 25 points makes this a much more doable proposition, since Wembanyama reached the 25-point threshold in more than half of his regular season games.

He won’t have an easy time against Minnesota, but he reached 40 P/R in one of the teams’ two regular season matchups and scored 29 points in the other. Though the Timberwolves roster one of the few defenders comparable to Wembanyama, his countryman Rudy Gobert, he hasn’t been horrible in his 34.8 partial possessions against Gobert, shooting four-for-six inside the arc. He also scored 17 points on six-for-12 shooting in his one regular season matchup against his mentor. Plus, while both men are excellent rebounders, Wembanyama gets his far more efficiently; among the 55 players who averaged at least 10 rebound chances per game (minimum 60 games) during the regular season, Wembanyama led the league in rebound chance percentage and Gobert ranked just 26th.

Mike Conley 4+ Assists (-106)

Conley was dealt at the trade deadline to bring in Dosunmu, dealt again by the Chicago Bulls to the Charlotte Hornets, and released by the Hornets, making him eligible to re-sign with Minnesota. When the Timberwolves picked him back up, there was no expectation that he’d play a major role, but Edwards’ knee injury during the regular season and DiVincenzo’s in the first round thrust him back into the starting lineup. He played at least 20 minutes in six post-deadline games, dishing out four assists thrice, and he’s had at least four three times in his last five games, including a critical six in Game 1. He led all Minnesota players in potential assists in Game 1.

San Antonio isn’t necessarily the easiest opponent to rack up assists against, given that it allowed the 12th-fewest during the regular season and has given up the second-fewest per game so far these playoffs, but Conley’s passes go to the right players: Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels. The Spurs have given up the fourth-most corner threes per game, and McDaniels shot 45.3% on such shots during the regular season. Additionally, Randle has the easiest defensive assignment, Keldon Johnson, who ranked in the first percentile in total contests per 100 possessions during the regular season and posted a stop percentage 1.0 percentage points below the league average.

Stephon Castle 2+ Steals (+147)

Castle has been a defensive menace throughout this postseason. Only one of the nine players he’s guarded for more than 15 partial possessions these playoffs (Scoot Henderson) has shot more than 50% from the field when guarded by him, and in that span, he’s forced those players into 12 turnovers. He wreaked havoc in Game 2, as each of he, Julian Champagnie, De’Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, and Dylan Harper recorded two steals. Castle also had three steals during the teams’ last regular season meeting on January 17.

Because Castle usually guards the opposing team’s primary ball-handler, he has the most opportunities to rack up steals, and this series has been no exception. The two players Castle has guarded the most this series are Randle — known slangily in some NBA fan circles as “Dubious Handle” — and Edwards, who possessed the ball for a combined 6.8 minutes in Game 1. Edwards averaged nearly one lost-ball turnover per game during the regular season, as did Randle. They rank first and second on the team so far these playoffs in turnovers per game, and they also pass it most frequently to each other, giving Castle the opportunity to impact passing lanes regardless of which player he’s guarding.