When NBA commissioner Adam Silver initiated the Play-In Tournament prior to the 2020-21 season, he must’ve dreamed of an outcome like Tuesday night, when both games went down to the wire. That night, the Portland Trail Blazers earned the seventh seed in the Western Conference and the Charlotte Hornets kept their season alive, downing the Miami Heat behind Coby White’s and LaMelo Ball’s late-game heroics.

Now, the Hornets will have a chance to advance to the playoff bracket proper for the first time since 2015-16. They’ll face the Orlando Magic at 7:40 p.m. ET, with the winner claiming the No. 8 seed in the East and the chance to play the top-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round of the playoffs.

For Charlotte, only Moussa Diabaté (knee) is on the injury report, as he has a questionable designation. Orlando should be healthy as well, though Franz Wagner (ankle) will likely remain on a minutes restriction after he played only 29 minutes in the Magic’s loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Hornets are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 218.5. The Magic are +145 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s critical contest.

LaMelo Ball 25+ Points (+114)

Ball was about as ineffective as a scorer as he possibly could’ve in Charlotte’s win over the Heat, going an atrocious two-for-16 from beyond the arc, but he recorded 30 points and 10 assists because he shot the ball 31 times. It’s not a guarantee that he’ll take 31 shots again — he didn’t take more than 27 in any regular season game — but he shouldn’t need to to reach 25 points. He cleared that threshold 16 times in the regular season, attempting just 13 shots in one of the games. Unlike Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel, Ball has previously played in the Play-In Tournament in both 2021 and 2022, so they could be more comfortable deferring to him again with the season on the line.

Orlando isn’t particularly well-equipped to stop him. Despite going all-in during the offseason by bringing in Desmond Bane, who ranks in the 88th percentile in points saved per 100 possessions, the Magic’s defense took a step back overall, falling from second in defensive rating to 13th this season. Ball had some success against Orlando, scoring 25 points in 74.1 partial possessions against Anthony Black, and though he didn’t reach the 25-point threshold in any game, he averaged 18.8 points in just 28.3 minutes per game. If he plays closer to 40 minutes, like he did on Tuesday, 25 points seems reasonable.

Jalen Suggs 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+137)

Suggs, who’s typically one of Orlando’s most valuable players because of his playmaking and defense, had an absolute stinker in the Magic’s Play-In Tournament loss, shooting just one-for-nine from the field (one-for-six from three) and scoring just four points. Orlando was out-scored by 14 points with him on the court. But he ended the regular season strong, hitting three or more triples in five of his final six regular season games, and that’s a much larger sample size than just Tuesday’s game. It’s not like he took bad shots; five of his six threes were either open or wide-open.

In general, the Hornets incentivize three-point shooters. After January 1, Charlotte allowed the seventh-fewest attempts in the restricted area, and Moussa Diabaté ranked in the 81st percentile in rim contests per 100 possessions. The Hornets were also a dominant rebounding team, taking away easy put-back opportunities. As a result, they gave up the 10th-most above-the-break threes per game after the turn of the calendar and got lucky that opponents connected at the fifth-lowest rate. Suggs led the team in above-the-break three attempts and connected at a 37.4% clip after the All-Star break.

Ryan Kalkbrenner 4+ Rebounds (-110)

The rookie was a starter for 25 of the first 27 games of his career before falling out of favor for Diabaté, but he’s still played a critical role off the bench as a hyper-efficient finisher and offensive rebounder. In the 38 games in which he came off the bench, he snagged at least four boards 25 times, so it’s not like he needs huge minutes to make an impact on the game. Though he only played 13 in Tuesday’s win, he still managed to snag five boards, including four offensive rebounds. He’d have ranked seventh in offensive rebounding percentage if he’d played enough minutes to qualify.

The Magic are a decent rebounding team, ranking ninth in total rebounding percentage and 13th in opponent rebounds per game during the regular season, but because they get downhill a lot and don’t finish very accurately, they allow a lot of rebound chances, especially to opposing bigs. Additionally, they’ve been the second-best team in the league at drawing fouls, and Diabaté is more foul-prone than most, so he isn’t a guarantee to play 36 minutes like he did on Tuesday. Kalkbrenner snagged at least four boards in all three of his games against Orlando, including one in which Diabaté played just 17 minutes and committed five fouls.