Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Wednesday’s Game 5 between the Orlando Magic and the Detroit Pistons.
The Orlando Magic have taken a 3-1 series advantage over the top-seeded Detroit Pistons in the most surprising start to the opening round series. This pair of Eastern Conference teams will return to Detroit tonight, where the Pistons will fight for their playoff lives. Both of these teams have some issues with their offensive process, but play elite defense with plenty of physicality, which has been put on full display through the opening four games.
You can check out a preview for the full Magic vs. Pistons series on DraftKings Network here.
Looking at the odds for the Game 5 matchup, the Pistons enter as 9.5-point favorites and hold -395 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Magic hold +310 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 211.5 points.
The Orlando Magic were expected to catapult into the list of contenders in the Eastern Conference following their offseason trade for Desmond Bane. They have failed to play at a contender level consistently this season, but have lately looked much better during this first round series. After battling injuries for most of the year and failing to get a proper sample size of how the team is performing, the Magic’s recent stretch of postseason play has been encouraging. Ultimately, Orlando finished as the eighth seed with a 45-37 overall record. Orlando lost to the 76ers in the first Play-In matchup, but it blew out the Hornets to earn this playoff opportunity. On the season, the Magic went 39-45 against the spread, and the game total has gone 44-40 to the over/under.
Franz Wagner headlines the injury report for the matchup and is listed as questionable with a right calf strain. Injuries have limited Wagner to 34 regular season games, where he has posted averages of 20.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Jonathan Isaac is also considered doubtful with his left knee sprain. Paolo Banchero headlines the production, posting averages of 22.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game across the regular season. Desmond Bane has stepped up as a leader and floor spacer, adding 20.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists while shooting 39.1% on three-point attempts. Anthony Black has enjoyed a breakout season, while the likes of Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Tristan da Silva, and Goga Bitadze play key roles as well.
Jamahl Mosley’s squad averages 115.7 points per game, which ranks 15th in the league. It also ranks 19th in offensive rating, 21st in field-goal percentage and 27th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.1 points per game against Orlando, which ranks 13th in the league. The Magic also rank 11th in defensive rating, 19th in opponent field-goal percentage and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Detroit Pistons looked like the top team in the Eastern Conference from start to finish this season, but they have their backs against the wall much sooner than expected. Not having a secondary creator alongside Cade Cunningham was always a concern, and Detroit is being punished for it. The Pistons finished the regular season with a 60-22 record and went 44-38 against the spread this season. The game total also remained under in 44 of their 82 games.
Kevin Huerter is the lone Pistons player on the injury report and is listed as questionable with a left adductor strain. Cade Cunningham battled a collapsed lung at the tail end of the season but returned for the final three regular-season games and has largely looked like himself in the postseason. The former No. 1 pick leads the Pistons with 23.9 points, 9.9 assists and 5.5 rebounds on the season. Jalen Duren made an All-Star leap alongside him, posting averages of 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game on the season, but he has greatly struggled in this series. Daniss Jenkins has been a breakout impact player this year, while Tobias Harris provides veteran leadership to the young roster. Ausar Thompson, Kevin Huerter, Duncan Robinson and Ron Holland also play notable roles.
Detroit is scoring 117.8 points per game this season, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Pistons also rank 10th in offensive rating, third in field-goal percentage and 17th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 109.6 points per game against the Pistons, which ranks third in the league. J.B. Bickerstaff’s squad also ranks second in defensive rating, third in opponent field-goal percentage and first in opponent three-point percentage.
The Pistons opened this series as a -425 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, and these odds have now shifted greatly. Entering Game 5, the Pistons are now +210 underdogs to advance to the second round while the Magic hold -255 odds of winning the series.
Orlando leaped out to a 1-0 series lead by producing a 112-101 win in Game 1. The Magic led for 97% of the matchup, stretching the lead to as many as 13 despite shooting just 29% on three-point attempts. Orlando won outright as an 8.5-point underdog and proved capable of matching Detroit’s physicality.
The Pistons got back in the win column in Game 2, in a 98-83 rock fight. Orlando shot just 33% from the field and 25% on three-point attempts, while Detroit connected on 46% of its shot attempts and 23% from the perimeter. The Pistons were able to win the rebounding battle 57-42 and covered the 8.5-point spread.
In Game 3, the Magic got back on top with a 113-105 win. Orlando won the rebounding battle and stretched the lead to as many as 17, leading for 79% of the overall matchup. The Magic won outright as 2.5-point underdogs. In the series, the game total has gone under twice but over in the previous matchup.
It was a defensive battle in Game 4 as well. The Magic secured a 94-88 win and led for 72% of the matchup. Both teams extended a lead to 10 points or greater, and each side shot below 40% from the field and 26% or worse from beyond the three-point arc. Orlando once again proved capable of matching Detroit’s physicality, and the Pistons did not have enough offense down the stretch.
Detroit has largely overwhelmed teams this season with its size and physicality this season. But the Magic have proven capable of matching this and looked like the team they have hoped to be all year. Orlando has not put a full sample size of who it is supposed to be all year. But the recent stretch of play is as encouraging as we have seen all year from this Magic team, and they will be focused on finishing the job to advance to the second round.
This has been an old-school matchup with the final scores of these matchups befitting scores from decades prior compared to the modern up-tempo style of NBA basketball. Detroit’s offensive concerns were put on display across the regular season, and showed their face at the wrong time. Orlando deserves credit for exploiting this and matching their defensive level.
My lean is toward Detroit showing the necessary level of pride and production to get the result at home and extend the series. They are 22-20 against the spread at home this season and 45-41 ATS overall. However, the 9.5 point spread is too significant based on how this series has gone.
Detroit improving their defensive production and slowing down a Magic team that struggled to score for stretches feels like a much clearer pathway to success than a drastic improvement in their offensive scoring. Expect an all-out defensive effort from a Pistons team that ranked third in opponents’ points allowed and second in defensive rating across the regular season. Expect the game total to remain under for the fourth time in five games. However, my best bet for this matchup is the Magic being held to under 100.5 points.
So far in this series, the Magic have produced scoring totals of 112, 83, 113, and 94. This comes after a regular season in which Orlando averaged 115.7 points per game, which ranks 15th, and ranked 19th in offensive rating. The Magic were held to 100 or fewer points in 10 games this season, including once against the Pistons. They were also limited to 97 points in the play-in loss to the 76ers to secure this matchup with Detroit. Expect a slow-paced matchup in which neither team has success getting out on the fast break. Detroit will be looking to maximize its defensive effort, with its offensive issues in mind. Count on the scoring output for the Magic to look more in line with the 83 points they were held to in Game 2 and 94 points in Game 4. There will be all-out intensity in the building, and the Pistons’ defense will match this effort against a Magic team with offensive flaws. Buckle up for playoff intensity and a strong defensive effort from the Pistons.
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