The Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns will face off for their Game 3 playoff matchup during the afternoon slate today. The defending champions have leaped out to a 2-0 series advantage, but the action will now travel to Phoenix, where the Suns will host their first playoff matchup between these two sides.

You can check out the full preview and prediction for the series on DraftKings Network here.

Looking at the odds for Game 3, the Thunder enter as an 8.5-point favorite and hold -375 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Suns hold +295 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 213.5 points.

Thunder at Suns preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder delivered on their championship aspirations last season and are aiming to do the same this year. They finished with a 64-18 record across the regular season and earned the top spot in the Western Conference. On the season, the Thunder went 40-44 against the spread, and the game total went over in 43 of their 82 games played.

Looking at the team statistics, Oklahoma City ranked fifth in scoring, seventh in offensive rating, second in opponent scoring and first in defensive rating across the regular season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines the production, posting averages of 31.1 points, 6.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game across the regular season. Chet Holmgren makes his presence felt on both sides of the floor and finished the regular season with averages of 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. Depth is a strength of this young championship roster, with players like Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Hartenstein each capable of scaling up their respective roles.

This depth will be called into action today, and likely longer, following the injury to Jalen Williams. The Santa Clara product is considered week-to-week after suffering a hamstring strain in Game 2. Williams was instrumental to last year’s title run and averaged 17.1 points per game across the regular season. Isaiah Joe is listed out for today for personal reasons, and Thomas Sorber will also miss as he recovers from his ACL injury.

The Phoenix Suns turned a page on their star-driven mindset of roster construction. They laid a foundation for the next era of Suns basketball with grit and toughness at a premium. Phoenix exceeded expectations across the regular season, going 45-37 and finishing as the eighth seed in the Western Conference. They fell to the Portland Trail Blazers in the first play-in matchup before defeating the Golden State Warriors to earn this series with the Thunder. Phoenix went 47-35 against the spread, and the game total is 36-46 to the over/under in the regular season.

Across the regular season, the Suns ranked 26th in scoring, 16th in offensive rating, sixth in opponent points per game and 10th in defensive rating. Devin Booker headlines the production with averages of 26.1 points, 6.0 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game across the regular season. Jalen Green has battled injuries but adds 17.8 points per game, while Dillon Brooks sets the tone on both sides of the ball and contributes a career-high 20.2 points per game. Royce O’Neale, Grayson Allen, Oso Ighodaro and Collin Gillespie each also play key roles.

Phoenix enters with a clearer injury report but still has some concerns. Mark Williams will remain sidelined with his left foot injury and has yet to make his playoff debut. Grayson Allen and Jordan Goodwin are each listed as questionable as the two deal with hamstring and calf soreness.

Games 1 & 2 Takeaways

The Thunder have tallied comfortable victories in each of the first two games this series. They have looked like the better team on both sides of the ball and played their way to victories by scores of 119-84 and 120-107. The Suns covered the 16.5-point spread in Game 2 but were unable to keep things close in the series opener.

Defense has been the most notable storyline through the first two games. While Phoenix is a respectable defensive squad in its own right, Oklahoma City limited the Suns to just 84 points on 35% shooting from the field and 33% from beyond the three-point arc in the opening matchup. Phoenix managed to scrap to 107 points in the second matchup, but it still struggled to generate reliable offense throughout.

Thunder at Suns Game 3 prediction, pick

If there is a game the Suns are going to get in the series, it feels like it will be this one. The franchise deserves credit for changing its identity in the offseason and establishing a foundation that can be built on moving forward. But this is a Thunder team that is several steps ahead of them in this trajectory and has a championship ring on each of their fingers as evidence.

The injury to Jalen Williams is a big deal to the Thunder’s outlook. The All-Star was vital to last year’s postseason run, carrying the responsibility of running the offense when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor. He has battled injury issues all year and failed to look like himself for extended stretches. But his absence provides a shakeup in the offensive responsibility across this roster that will be a concern. With all of this in mind, my lean is toward the Suns putting forth their best effort and covering the spread tonight. They are a prideful squad that competes on every possession and carries themselves with toughness.

However, I am backing the game total to remain under the 213.5-point line for the matchup. Both teams play a defensive-minded style of basketball. But even with Williams’ absence in mind, the Thunder have much more offensive talent that they will lean on throughout. For the Suns to have a chance in the matchup, it will involve making this a defensive grind. There will be a clear effort to slow the pace of play and eliminate all transition opportunities from Phoenix throughout.

Expect Oklahoma City to see some growing pains without its only reliable creator outside of Gilgeous-Alexander. It is more accustomed to playing without him than the organization would like to be the case, but there is no clear replication of his skillset on this roster. In addition, it felt that the 107 points the Suns tallied in the previous game were on the higher side of what is possible against this caliber of Thunder defense.

The game total finished at 227 and 203 through the first two games. The game total has also remained under 28 of the Suns’ 43 games played at home this season, and it is 12-6 to the under when they are home underdogs. Expect an all-out defensive effort and for both teams to make their opponent earn every single basket. Count on the 213.5 game total to be too ambitious and for this to be a final score that could be confused for one played decades ago.

Best Bet: Game Total Under 213.5 (-110)