Dan Johnson analyzes his three favorite HRR (hits + run + RBI) props across all of Sunday’s loaded early-afternoon MLB slate.
Sunday afternoon’s HRR board rewards hitters who stay attached to the whole inning: top-half lineup spots, traffic in front of them, split comfort, and pitchers who turn clean innings into baserunner math. A homer is the cleanest shortcut, but we’re also hunting the guys who can pile up a single, a run, an RBI, or one extra-base swing before the market fully prices their involvement.
Below are my three favorite picks from the Sunday slate of games to fill up the scoreboard.
Tyler Soderstrom is the A’s bat I want tied to this Camden setup because the box-score line is underselling the violence. Through 160 PA, he has five HR, 20 RBI, 21 runs, an 11.3% walk rate and a 22.5% strikeout rate, but the right-handed matchup split is where the ticket sharpens: against RHP, he’s at .240/.339/.469 with four HR, 14 RBI, 10 doubles, 14 extra-base hits and 45 total bases in 112 PA. The Statcast profile is even louder than the slash line: 91.1 mph average exit velocity, 51.0% hard-hit rate, 13.5% barrel rate, .330 xwOBA, plus a 113.2 mph max EV and 420-foot max HR distance. Chris Bassitt gives this real traffic-and-damage runway. He enters with a 5.91 ERA, 5.53 xERA, 5.17 FIP, only 20 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings, and four starts with at least four earned runs allowed. Soderstrom already has two hits in seven at-bats against him, and Baltimore’s bullpen has carried a 4.07 xERA over its last 44 innings. A double with traffic, a run-plus-RBI sequence, or one pulled barrel can cash this.
Yordan Alvarez is the premium bat we still want in HRR form because one swing can end the bet and the non-homer paths are alive too. He gets Great American Ball Park, Andrew Abbott, and an Astros lineup that should put traffic in front of him. The lefty-lefty discount is not scaring me off when Yordan’s 2026 damage profile is this loud: .327 average, 13 HR, 29 RBI, and the Statcast game preview has him carrying a 126 hitter grade into this matchup. The matchup-specific note is even stronger: Abbott has already allowed at least one homer in four of his last seven appearances, while Yordan has hit six of his 13 homers against lefties in just 56 at-bats. That is the whole bet. Abbott’s walk rate gives Houston baserunner volume, Cincinnati’s park gives lifted contact extra life, and Yordan’s barrel frequency gives this 3+ HRR ticket a ceiling that most HRR plays simply do not have. A homer is 3 HRR by itself. A double with men on base can do the same.
Nick Gonzales is the sniper play. The HR ticket at +1400 is a moonshot because his 2026 launch profile is still more line-drive than true over-the-wall thump, but the 3+ HRR at +191 makes much more sense. He is coming off a four-hit game in Pittsburgh’s 13-3, 20-hit demolition of San Francisco, and that matters because this market rewards continuation of contact, lineup momentum, and RBI/run placement more than pure slug. Gonzales is expected to hit fifth, which gives him a real RBI lane behind Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz and the top-half traffic, and the matchup is friendly enough to keep the inning-extension case alive. Tyler Mahle enters at 1-4 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, while the Pirates’ bats just exposed a Giants staff that has been bleeding innings. Gonzales’ Statcast preview line is modest power-wise, but useful for HRR: 86.5 mph EV, 39.8% hard-hit, .336 wOBA, .306 xwOBA. This is two singles, a run, and an RBI territory. At nearly 2-to-1, that’s playable.
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