The San Antonio Spurs took a 1-0 series advantage over the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. It was a thrilling double-overtime matchup that was everything that NBA playoff basketball should be, and the start of what is likely a budding rivalry for the next decade. The Thunder will be looking to bounce back and even the series to avoid falling into a 2-0 hole with the home crowd behind them.

Looking at the odds for Game 2, the Thunder enter as a 6.5-point favorite and hold -238 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Spurs hold +195 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 217.5 points.

Spurs at Thunder preview

The San Antonio Spurs have made the leap from exciting young team to legitimate title threat. While inexperience has been the biggest thing held against them, each member of this young roster has shown to be ready for the weight of the moment. San Antonio joined OKC as the lone other team in the league to win 62+ games, finishing 62-20 across the regular season. It defeated the Trail Blazers in five games in the opening round and the Timberwolves in six games in the second round to reach this stage. Including the playoffs, the Spurs have gone 55-38-2 against the spread, and the game total is 44-51 to the over/under.

De’Aaron Fox is the lone player on the injury report and is expected to be a game-time decision due to right ankle soreness. The two-time All-Star missed the opening matchup of this series, but San Antonio was able to find a way to win without him. Fox’s absence puts more responsibility on the shoulders of Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, but the two young guards proved ready for the opportunity by combining for 44 points, 17 rebounds and 17 assists in Game 1.

Victor Wembanyama headlines the production for San Antonio, coming off a monster 41-point and 24-rebound performance in Game 1. The first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year posted averages of 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks across the regular season and 22.2 points, 11.9 rebounds and 3.9 blocks per game across the postseason. Castle and Harper are vital to the attack, while players like Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie and Carter Bryant each play key roles.

Across the regular season, the Spurs averaged 119.8 points per game, which ranked third in the NBA. They also ranked fourth in offensive rating, sixth in field-goal percentage and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.5 points per game against San Antonio, which ranks eighth in the league. It also ranks third in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field-goal percentage and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.

The Oklahoma City Thunder got over the championship hump last year and are proving their timeline for success is far from over. Despite having the target on their back all season, the Thunder cruised to an NBA-best 64-18 record across the regular season. Oklahoma City swept its first two playoff series against the Suns and Lakers, with the Game 1 loss marking its first of the postseason. Across the year overall, the Thunder have gone 44-47 against the spread, and the game total is 50-41 to the over/under.

Jalen Williams made his return from his hamstring strain in Game 1 and played 37 minutes of action, in which he finished with 26 points and seven rebounds. This leaves Thomas Sorber as the only player on the injury report as he continues to recover from his ACL surgery.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earned his second consecutive MVP after posting averages of 31.1 points, 6.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game across the regular season. He is leading all scorers in the postseason with 28.6 points per game, along with 7.7 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game. Gilgeous-Alexander was limited to 24 points in Game 1 on an uncharacteristic 7-for-23 shooting. The Thunder will need more out of Chet Holmgren after his eight-point and eight-rebound performance. Ajay Mitchell, Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Jared McCain each make their impact felt in the rotation.

The Thunder closed the regular season ranked fifth in the NBA in scoring at 119.0 points per game. Oklahoma City also ranks seventh in offensive rating, fifth in field-goal percentage and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Thunder rank second in opponent points per game at 107.9 per game, first in defensive rating, first in opponent field-goal percentage and 25th in opponent three-point percentage.

Game 1 Takeaways

Game 1 of this series was the type of game that made you remember why the NBA Playoffs are so electric. These were the two biggest heavyweights in the NBA all season, and each threw their best punch in the series opener.

Neither team was able to extend a lead by more than 10 points across the Game 1 matchup. San Antonio held control for 81% of the game, while Oklahoma City only led for 7% of the matchup. Both teams had some shooting struggles, and the starters were forced to log workloads beyond what they are accustomed to.

The biggest matchup takeaways all have to do with Victor Wembanyama. The Thunder opted to primarily face-guard him with Alex Caruso, who did a solid job despite how the raw stats look. Oklahoma City also made a conscious effort to space the floor, launching 45 three-point attempts, in an effort to bring Wembanyama away from the rim to limit his shot-blocking impact. This is a matchup loaded with high-level talent, but Wembanyama shined as the brightest star when push came to shove to lead his team to the win.

Spurs at Thunder Game 2 prediction, pick

Given how evenly matched these teams appear, the 6.5-point spread is an intimidating number. But this is a Thunder team with plenty of resiliency and a championship pedigree. This is a series that feels destined to go deep, and don’t expect the Thunder to fall into the 0-2 series hole.

Oklahoma City is 33-7 straight-up and 22-17-1 against the spread coming off a loss the past two seasons. This includes going 8-0 straight-up and 6-2 against the spread coming off a playoff loss across this stretch. The Thunder went 34-7 at home this season across the regular season, and they were 4-0 straight-up in the playoffs at home until Monday.

Game 1 did not feel like a true rest vs. rust example, but it did feel like the first time Oklahoma City woke up to the playoff intensity. Neither the Suns nor the Lakers had the caliber of talent that it takes to make a deep playoff run, and Oklahoma City has largely cruised to this point. The Spurs entered Game 1 with a clear seriousness that the Thunder were not ready for, and they paid the price for it. Oklahoma City did not roll over by any means, but it did not get off to the dominant start that is largely expected of it.

Count on a different energy from the opening tip tonight and for the Thunder to get back to their standard of play. There were some notable adjustments made as the game played out that led to more success for Oklahoma City, and expect this to carry over from the start tonight. Don’t expect Gilgeous-Alexander to repeat his poor shooting effort, with his 30.4% shooting percentage marking his second-worst efficiency of any game this year.

Count on an all-out effort from the defending champions tonight as they serve a reminder of why they still belong on this stage and why their championship window is far from closed. Oklahoma City largely allowed Wembanyama to play his game and count on a clearer effort to get the ball out of his hands tonight. Back a statement win by Oklahoma City and for the Thunder to cover the 6.5-point spread as the series evens itself up tonight. 

Best Bet: Thunder -6.5 (-115)