Two weeks ago, all looked lost for Tottenham Hotspur. After Brighton equalized in the 95th minute in Matchweek 33, Spurs were solidly in the relegation zone, and their 49-season run in England’s top flight seemed as if it would imminently come to an end.

Now, Tottenham’s situation isn’t quite so bleak; after beating bottom-of-the-table Wolves in Matchweek 34 and pulling off a stunner against an Aston Villa side resting some of its best players for the Europa League semifinals, Spurs have a chance to go five points clear of the drop zone with two matches to play. They’ll host Leeds United at 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) on Monday, and now that they’re mathematically safe from relegation and unlikely to qualify for European football, the Whites have nothing to play for.

Tottenham is a -115 favorite to to take all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Leeds is +285. There are +290 odds that the teams will draw, which would still leave Spurs in a solid position to stay up.

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Leeds United prediction, pick

It took Tottenham more than three and a half months to claim its first Premier League victory of 2026, as it had picked up six draws and nine losses in its first 15 league matches of the calendar year, but momentum is pointing upwards, and it has two wins, one draw, and one defeat under Roberto De Zerbi, whom it appointed as manager during the March international break. Spurs’ elimination from the Champions League at the hands of Atlético Madrid probably helped with that, too; now, they have nothing but their relegation battle to focus on. The Whites, meanwhile, haven’t lost in the Premier League for more than two months, picking up three wins and three draws in their last six matches, and they have just five defeats in all competitions since the start of December. Leeds crashed out of the FA Cup in the semifinals against Chelsea, so now it, too, has no focus but the domestic league.

On paper, Tottenham has the more talented roster, even though Xavi Simons, arguably its most promising youngster, is now done for the season with a torn ACL. Despite the injury crisis that Spurs have gone through, some players have still performed, including Richarlison (10 goals). In fact, Tottenham has been the Premier League’s most clinical team, as though Spurs have generated the fourth-fewest expected goals’ worth of chances, they’ve managed to score 45 times, merely the ninth-fewest in the league. They’ve also been among the most clinical from set pieces and headers, scoring more headed goals than any team besides likely champions Arsenal. The issue is that Tottenham has been pretty leaky in the back, conceding the ninth-most expected goals and the eighth-highest shot-in-box percentage, and it has won just 46.5% of its aerial duels. Spurs do lead the league in tackles and have been excellent at playing the offsides trap, but the latter might not matter against the Whites, who don’t attempt through balls very often. Ultimately, it all comes down to their issues between the sticks: they’ve allowed the third-most goals over expectation, and top-choice goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario remains out.

Leeds has plenty of talent, too. Dominic Calvert-Lewin arrived last summer from Everton and has been stellar, scoring 12 goals, and three Central European attacking options (Germany’s Anton Stach and Lukas Nmecha and Switzerland’s Noah Okafor) have all contributed at least five goals as well, with United States attacking midfielder Brendan Aaronson providing the most assists. The Whites have nearly cracked the top half in expected goals, managing the 11th-most, and they also rank 10th in shots on target and ninth in expected goals per shot. Defensively, Leeds has also been solid, giving up chances worth the 10th-fewest expected goals and limiting opponents to the ninth-lowest shot-in-box percentage. The Whites have won ground duels at a rate nearly equal to Tottenham’s while being superior in aerial duels, and they rank fourth in the league in interceptions and fifth in clearances. Additionally, Karl Darlow has been excellent in between the sticks as of late, saving at least 70% of his possible opportunities in seven of his last eight matches.

Given their talent advantage on paper and the fact that they have more to play for, Spurs’ status as the favorite makes sense, and I’m not sure that their struggles at home (just two wins all season) are necessarily sustainable, especially now that their fans believe again. Still, the fact that they’ve battled relegation for most of 2026 also makes sense, as they’ve made tons of mistakes and played generally indisciplined football. They also aren’t well-prepared to take advantage of Leeds’ sloppy passing, as they rank below the league average in interceptions, and the Whites are relatively unlikely to gift them the set pieces or easy header opportunities that they’ve comparatively thrived from. Tottenham should still survive in the end, but I’m not sure this is a game in which it’ll get all three points.

Best Bet: Tottenham Hotspur and Leeds United to Draw (+290)