Wednesday’s home run board gets its best pulse in the late windows. Kauffman gives Ben Rice warm air and a Noah Cameron contact sheet already flashing danger. Dodger Stadium sends Freddie Freeman into the slate’s loudest pitcher matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano. PNC leaves Brandon Lowe with a playable number against a Jameson Taillon profile allowing lift and firm contact to this lineup. The three swings all carry the same shape: left-handed thump, current power indicators, and prices that still leave room for the nightly mess.

Below are my three favorite picks from the early slate of games to swat one out.

Top MLB Home Run Props today

Casey Shmitt to hit a home run (+400)

Casey Schmitt earns another appearance on the card because his present power shape has changed sharply enough to withstand the familiarity penalty. He has already reached 12 HR, with homers on May 23, May 24 and May 26, and the underlying contact supports the burst: Schmitt’s 15.2% barrel rate is up from 9.0% last season, while his average launch angle has climbed from 19.2 degrees to 21.7 degrees. He is turning more of his strongest contact into the exact elevated flight required for home-run conversion. The matchup amplifies that development. Michael Lorenzen brings a 7.21 ERA, .422 wOBA allowed, .375 xwOBA allowed, 47.2% hard-hit rate allowed and 9.6% barrel rate allowed into Coors Field, where Denver should remain around 73-75 degrees through the early portion of the game.

Schmitt has already shown his current lift can leave less charitable parks; Coors raises the reward on the same swing path. Rafael Devers is the safer famous name in this lineup, but Schmitt offers the stronger price relative to current barrel production and opponent damage. The entire case rests on present-tense air impact meeting the softest pitcher-environment collision on the board.

Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+325)

Michael Harris II enters Cincinnati with 13 HR and a home run Thursday night in Boston, yet his selection is powered by a much larger development: his contact has taken a genuine middle-of-the-order turn. Harris is producing a 93.3 mph average exit velocity, 56.0% hard-hit rate, 16.1% barrel rate and .386 xwOBA; last season, his barrel rate sat at 9.1% and his average exit velocity at 90.2 mph. His average launch angle has also risen from 7.4 degrees to 10.7 degrees, a meaningful shift for a hitter whose speed and line-drive skill previously obscured just how much damage his bat could create. Great American Ball Park gives that new shape an inviting runway, with first-pitch temperatures projected around 78-81 degrees. Chris Paddack’s contact metrics are less combustible than his 6.86 ERA suggests—.328 xwOBA allowed, 41.5% hard-hit rate and 7.9% barrels allowed—which makes Harris the right Atlanta target: the edge begins with the hitter’s transformed impact rather than a reckless fade of the pitcher. Matt Olson carries the shorter traditional slugger price. Harris offers emerging elite contact, favorable carry conditions and the kind of left-handed power that can make Cincinnati’s right-field dimensions feel indecent.

Nathniel Lowe to hit a home run (+485)

Nathaniel Lowe is the Cincinnati bat with the better number and one of the most convincing contact transformations on the slate. His eight HR understate a 2026 batted-ball profile carrying a 90.6 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, 15.2% barrel rate and .394 xwOBA. The detail that pushes him onto the card is his 45.9% launch-angle sweet-spot rate, up from 33.4% last season. Lowe is repeatedly putting the ball into the eight-to-32-degree window where authoritative left-handed contact becomes extra-base damage, and his most recent home run was a 435-foot shot to right-center at Great American Ball Park on May 23. Grant Holmes has been competent enough to keep the price attractive while permitting the proper kind of contact for this wager: 89.9 mph average exit velocity allowed, 44.4% hard-hit rate allowed, 9.3% barrel rate allowed and .323 xwOBA allowed. Cincinnati should play in warm air around 78 degrees after an afternoon peak above 80, and Lowe’s left-handed pull-and-carry lane fits this park beautifully. Sal Stewart remains dangerous, but Lowe’s longer +484 number captures the same game environment with a wider margin for value and a current contact profile built to produce the ninth homer.