Heading into the first-round series between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning, we knew this could end up a very close competition. Both teams finished with 106 points during the regular season and are bitter division rivals, so expecting a high-quality matchup only made sense. Game 1 delivered on that expectation and then some, with Montreal taking a 4-3 victory in overtime behind a Juraj Slafkovsky hat trick. With Game 2 on deck for Tuesday night, there’s surely another heated affair waiting for us.

Here’s a Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 2 prediction and pick for Tuesday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 2 prediction, preview

During the regular season, both of these teams deployed high-scoring offenses that proved an ability to pour on the goals time and again. They didn’t disappoint in Game 1 as the over cashed with a combined seven strikes into the back of the net, but that did seem a wee bit surprising given the two netminders. Andrei Vasilevskiy brought an extensive postseason track record into the matchup whereas rookie Jakub Dobes started the first playoff game of his career. The volume of shot attempts was low for both sides as Tampa Bay put 23 on net whereas Montreal managed just 19, but Dobes performed quite well under pressure and looked confident between the pipes.

The cliche of special teams being the key to a series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs may be said a million times around this time of year, but Game 1 was no exception. The Canadiens were the slightly better team on the man advantage during the regular season at 23.1% (10th) to the Lightning’s 20.7% (17th). That showed up to start things off with Montreal going 3-for-5 on the advantage, cracking a Lightning penalty kill that ranked third-best in the regular season. That was a massive development but may be tough to replicate over the course of seven games. To be fair, Tampa Bay went 2-for-5 on the power play as well and certainly didn’t struggle.

So, most of the scoring didn’t come via 5-on-5 situations. That’s a smidge different from how the Bolts typically operate since they’re one of the best even-strength teams in the NHL. The Habs’ defense showed up and showed out, and while they may not manage to do so in every game, the offense has the pieces to compete on a nightly basis. With Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman on “the doubtful side for this series” moving forward per head coach Jon Cooper, that’s only more reason to believe that Montreal has a better chance of hanging around in terms of offensive production.

Now, will Slafkovsky notch a hatty in Game 2 and beyond? Odds lean heavily towards the “no” side of that equation, but if the Canadiens continue to do the little things right, there’s no reason they can’t go up 2-0 tonight. They won 61.0% of faceoffs in Game 1 and had seven more blocked shots than the Lightning, though the 16 giveaways were a problem. Clean up those turnovers and limit penalties, and suddenly Montreal could capture lightning in a bottle on the road.

Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 2 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lightning as -192 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline today, while the Canadiens come in with +160 odds on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 80% of straight bets on Tampa Bay to win, 56% of wagers on Montreal to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 76% on the total’s over.

Shots were down for stars like Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Nikita Kucherov in Game 1. That should change tonight as it’s unlikely they’re all hardly active as shooters again, which could open things up in terms of scoring. That only makes me feel better about taking the over, which is my top pick for this game without a second thought. Over 5.5 goals has now cashed three times in these teams’ five meetings this season alone, but going back to some historical data backs up the bet as well.

If we look back at this season’s sample as well as last’s, the over on 5.5 goals has cashed in five of the eight matchups between these sides. Go back even further (if you dare) and the over is 9-for-12 since the 2023-24 campaign and 7-for-10 if you’d rather cut the sample a little bit shorter. The netminders are plenty good, but the offensive talents in this one are better.

Best bet: Over 5.5 goals (-130)