Julian Edlow shares his best bets for Game 3 between the Spurs and Timberwolves on Friday night.
The Timberwolves return home for Game 3 on Friday night. In some senses, it’s “mission accomplished” by getting a 1-1 split in San Antonio, after going off a double digit underdog in the first two games of the series. In another sense, it’s a big bounce-back spot, coming off an embarrassing 38-point loss in Game 2.
Everything about the role sets up pretty favorably for the Wolves. Minnesota is 4-3 straight up and against the spread as an underdog this postseason, but 2-0 SU/ATS as the home underdog. The Wolves are actually 3-0 SU/ATS in all home games during this postseason, and 2-0 SU/ATS off a loss. Both of those wins off a loss came as undermanned 7.5-point underdogs to Denver.
Minnesota has won both home games against the Spurs this season — a double digit win that Victor Wembanyama didn’t play in, and a one possession win that Wemby did play in. The Wolves have shown up at home over the last few postseasons, and that trend has only gotten stronger in these playoffs. I’m placing three bets each for half a unit on a few different ways to back Minnesota to bounce-back strong early and carry momentum throughout the game.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves +4.5 (-108)
NBA Pick: Timberwolves 1H +2 (-110)
NBA Pick: Timberwolves 1H ML/Full Game ML (+218)
I’m also backing a player prop on the Minnesota side. With all the backcourt injuries, Chris Finch turned to Terrence Shannon Jr. in a complimentary role in Game 5 in Denver. While the Timberwolves lost the game, Shannon was a spark plug in just 14 minutes, dropping 15 points. Since then, the Wolves have played Shannon in a featured role — averaging 17.3 points in over 31 minutes in the last three games.
Shannon has now scored 12 or more points in each of the last four playoff games, including 24 in his only home game during that span. We should see another aggressive game offensively for Shannon in what sets up as a good spot for the Wolves.
NBA Pick: Terrence Shannon Jr. 10+ Points (-133)
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