The Milwaukee Brewers are tied as the oldest of the five teams never to have won a World Series, but for nearly a decade, they’ve been tantalizingly close. They’ve made the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons and are on track to do so again in 2026.

Tonight, the Brewers will open their first four-game series of the season with a 7:40 p.m. ET home contest against the San Francisco Giants, who are flirting with the NL West’s cellar.

For tonight’s opener, San Francisco will start Landen Roupp, and Shane Drohan will serve as Milwaukee’s opener.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers prediction, preview

The Giants kept it competitive for the first month of the season, as they sat at 13-15 through 28 games. Since then, though, they’ve gone just 10-21, a 52-win pace across a full season. San Francisco’s offense wasn’t the issue; throughout May, it actually scored the ninth-most runs and finished with the seventh-highest OPS, though a 19-6 win yesterday against the Colorado Rockies certainly pads the stats somewhat. The Giants have made some genuine strides offensively, as despite Rafael Devers and Matt Chapman experiencing comparatively disappointing seasons, Casey Schmitt has broken out and winter arrival Luis Arraez has provided solid offense and career-best defense. However, San Francisco’s pitching staff posted the eighth-highest ERA throughout May, as its starters (5.21) were especially poor. The Giants still have plenty of talent on their staff, but they haven’t performed up to standard as of late.

Meanwhile, the Brewers have been nearly untouchable after a 13-13 start. Since then, Milwaukee has gone 22-8 (an 119-win pace across a full season), and its run differential suggests that it should be even better. The Brewers haven’t gotten production from everywhere in their lineup, as Luis Rengifo, Joey Ortiz, and Sal Frelick have been three of baseball’s worst qualified hitters, but they’ve gotten just enough from Brice Turang and Jake Bauers to stay afloat. If anything, the fact that they’ve won so many games with the sixth-worst offense in baseball suggests that they could be absolute juggernauts once that normalizes. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has been sensational, giving up 12 fewer runs than any other team in May. NL Pitcher of the Month contender Jacob Misiorowski has been the headliner, but he’s far from the only Brewers pitcher who has stepped up.

Thankfully for San Francisco, it has its best pitcher this season on the mound. Roupp has had a solid start to his career, recording a sub-4 ERA in all three of his professional seasons, and since allowing seven runs (five earned) in 4.2 innings in his second start of the season, he’s posted a very solid 3.10 mark. Advanced numbers back up his strong surface-level profile: he ranks third in the NL in FIP and in the 83rd percentile in expected ERA. In particular, the sinkerballer has done a tremendous job limiting hard contact, ranking in the top decile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and ground ball rate. As is, that’s not how Milwaukee does damage, as it ranks near the bottom of the league in all three of those metrics. Roupp could struggle some with walks, as he already struggles to generate chases and the Brewers chase at the league’s lowest rate. The splits are mixed: he has been somewhat better on the road throughout his career, and Milwaukee has been slightly better at home. Five innings and two earned runs seems like a reasonable expectation, and San Francisco’s bullpen has been less poor than its starters.

Drohan could provide some length as an opener. Though he’s maxed out at four innings pitched this season, he’s managed to provide as many as 60 pitches on one day’s rest, and since he hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday, four innings should be a reasonable expectation. He should be effective in those innings, given that he has a 2.38 FIP. In particular, Drohan has been exceptional at incentivizing chases, ranking in the 92nd percentile in that stat, and the Giants have chased at the fifth-highest rate. He also ranks above the league median in every Statcast category other than average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage (49th percentile), and the San Francisco’s offense has been fairly soft-hitting, ranking near the bottom of the league in both of those stats. With the splits marginally in his favor (he’s been significantly better at home and the Giants slightly better on the road), he should provide four solid innings, and the Brewers should have basically their full slate of relievers available after him, since Misiorowski pitched seven innings of ultra-effective ball last night.

San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers pick, best bet

Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-122)

Milwaukee’s offense has been extremely poor this season given the talent it has available, and its bullpen should be good enough to shut down San Francisco. Still, I expect Roupp to limit the damage for five innings or so, which should be good enough to keep the total under.

Strong Lean: Under 16.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+130)

Both of these teams have some of the best bat-to-ball skills in baseball, ranking in the bottom five in total strikeouts this season. Both pitchers are decent at racking up strikeouts (Roupp ranks in the 83rd percentile in strikeout rate and Drohan in the 67th), but I’ll take the hitters in this one.