A dramatic three-run homer off the bat of Gavin Sheets carried the Padres (25-17) to a 3-1 victory last night. San Diego, eyeing a trip to the World Series, finds itself atop the NL West. Earning a series win over the Brewers (23-17) would be quite the statement. Milwaukee, a fellow postseason contender, has other ideas. Which of these two National League powerhouses will pick up a victory on Thursday?

The Brewers are favorites (-156) over the Padres, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between San Diego and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Padres vs. Brewers prediction, preview

These two teams operate in a very similar fashion, relying heavily on pitching to win games. Unlike in years past, San Diego has opted for more of a low-budget approach with its starting rotation. That’s meant bringing in under the radar arms to eat some innings, including Griffin Canning. In 2025, the former Mets hurler got off to a good start prior to suffering a season-ending ruptured Achilles. In just 9.1 innings with the Padres, he’s coughed up seven earned runs (6.50 ERA, 1.61 WHIP). Still, almost all of the damage was due to a six-run disaster last week vs. St. Louis. There’s reason to believe the 30-year-old can put it together going forward.

With that being said, this Brewers lineup is no walk in the park. They’re scoring 5.35 runs per game at home, fourth-most in baseball. Even if Christian Yelich (back) can’t suit up today, there’s more than enough capable bats at manager Pat Murphy’s disposal. Among Milwaukee players with at least 90 plate appearances, six have a wRC+ above 100. That includes Brice Turang (161 wRC+), who is tearing the cover off of the ball this season. Through 37 games, the second baseman is slashing .295/.414/.504 with six homers and eight stolen bases.

Canning’s favorite off-speed pitches last season were the slider (31%) and changeup (23%). He’s thrown the latter 38% of the time in 2026, although it’s too early to determine if he’ll continue that usage going forward. Against those two offerings, the Brewers have posted a .202 expected batting average.

For the home team, it’ll be Kyle Harrison taking the mound this afternoon. After getting shipped to Boston as part of the Rafael Devers trade, the 24-year-old was sent to Milwaukee this offseason. So far, it’s looking like the perfect landing spot for the southpaw. Through 33.2 innings, he’s accounted for a 2.41 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 41 strikeouts. Even more impressive has been the youngster’s consistency. Harrison hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his eight outings. He’s struck out at least five batters in six of those appearances as well.

On paper, hitting should be a strength for this San Diego squad. However, most of the team’s biggest names have struggled to kick off 2026. Former All-Stars Fernando Tatis Jr. (84 wRC+), Manny Machado (81 wRC+) and Jackson Merrill (80 wRC+) have looked lifeless at the plate. We’re now in mid-May; the time to break out of an early-season slump was two weeks ago. The Padres are averaging a middling 4.21 runs per game, 18th-best in baseball. In addition, the Friars have notched the league’s fifth-worst OPS against left-handed pitching (.616).

Padres vs. Brewers pick, best bet

Canning, despite his lackluster numbers, is a better pitcher than it appears. Ignoring one bad start last week, the right-hander should keep San Diego in the game. However, generating some support from the bats could prove difficult. The Padres haven’t scored more than four runs in any of their last six matchups. Given the team’s struggles against left-handers, it’s difficult to see that changing on Thursday.

Best Bet: Padres vs. Brewers under 8.5 total runs (-138)