The Cardinals arrive at Citi Field with the steadier baseball and the better mood, which matters against a Mets team still trying to rebuild its spine. St. Louis is 36-28, has won five straight, and opened the series with a 7-0 shutout that felt bigger than one night. Dustin May gave the Cardinals six clean innings Tuesday, while JJ Wetherholt, Iván Herrera, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, and Nathan Church carried the offense. New York is 29-37, still without Francisco Lindor, and still searching for a nightly shape that does not leave Juan Soto carrying too many empty innings. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the New York Mets and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Mets vs. Cardinals prediction, preview

Andre Pallante does not make this a glamour pitching matchup, but he gives St. Louis the more traditional starting foundation. He enters 6-4 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 63.2 innings, 51 strikeouts, 23 walks, and eight homers allowed across 12 starts. The pitch mix is broad enough to keep him out of one-note danger, with a four-seamer, slider, sinker, knuckle curve, and occasional splitter giving him several ways through a lineup. His contact profile sits in a livable range, with an 88.1 mph average exit velocity allowed, 35.7% hard-hit rate, .312 wOBA, .309 expected wOBA, and 6.7% barrel rate. The Mets can load left-handed pressure against him, but Pallante’s recent usable turns against Texas and Cincinnati give St. Louis the sturdier early innings.

Austin Warren brings the prettier ERA and the stranger assignment. He is 1-2 with a 2.01 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 23 strikeouts, and nine walks across 22.1 innings, though those innings have come mostly in relief. Warren has made 16 appearances and one start, which turns Wednesday into a different kind of test than protecting a pocket of hitters for an inning. The batted-ball numbers are louder than the surface line, with a .315 expected wOBA, 90.4 mph average exit velocity, 41.4% hard-hit rate, 48.3% sweet-spot rate, and heavy barrel indicators. Warren can miss bats with the sweeper, but asking him to see this Cardinals order twice invites more danger than the ERA suggests.

St. Louis has enough top-half pressure to make that role uncomfortable quickly. Walker leads the lineup with a .301/.359/.557 slash, .916 OPS, 16 homers, 48 RBI, 44 runs, 15 doubles, and 10 steals, giving the Cardinals power that does not have to sit still. Burleson has matched the moment with a .293/.360/.472 line, .832 OPS, 17 doubles, nine homers, 46 RBI, 25 walks, and only 43 strikeouts. Herrera’s .388 OBP and 35 walks keep innings alive ahead of the damage, while Wetherholt adds 41 runs, nine homers, 31 walks, and seven steals despite a lower average. That group showed up immediately Tuesday, with Wetherholt driving in two, Walker doubling home a run, Burleson homering and doubling, Herrera reaching base five times, and Church returning from injury with three hits.

Cardinals vs. Mets pick, best bet

The Mets have enough counterpunch to keep the underdog case honest. Soto owns a .276/.368/.525 slash, .893 OPS, 13 homers, 30 RBI, and 27 walks, and Carson Benge has added seven homers, 10 steals, and a 5-for-5 game with a homer and triple in San Diego. Jared Young has been a badly needed spark since returning from knee surgery, pairing a .271/.353/.475 season line with a .944 OPS burst over 55 plate appearances. Francisco Alvarez also returned early from meniscus surgery, giving New York another right-handed power source behind Soto. The larger team split still drags on the Mets’ side, as they have hit .231/.295/.364 with a .660 OPS, 48 homers, and 392 strikeouts against right-handed pitching.

That is why the full-game price does not quite get the best of this matchup. New York’s bullpen has been the stronger late group, with a 3.24 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 28 homers, 97 walks, and 289 strikeouts, while St. Louis sits at 4.04, 1.36, 23 homers, 101 walks, and 218 strikeouts. If this game is tied after five, the Mets have the cleaner path through the final 12 outs. The better bet keeps the focus on Pallante’s starter length, Warren’s contact risk, and a Cardinals lineup that has looked much more complete lately.

Best bet: Cardinals first five innings moneyline at -105. Playable to -120.

Projected score: Cardinals 5, Mets 4.

Best bet: Cardinals F5 (-105) at Mets

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!