The San Antonio Spurs will host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight at 9:30 PM EST. The Spurs are leading this first-round series 3-1 and will look to close things out. The winner of this series will move on to play the winner of the Minnesota/Denver series.

The Trail Blazers have only listed out Damian Lillard. The Spurs will be fully healthy.

The Spurs are 11.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 216.5 points.

Spurs vs. Trail Blazers prediction, preview

Portland is in a do-or-die situation and are out of mulligans. Their best two chances to make this a competitive series slipped away when they dropped both home games, one in which Victor Wembanyama didn’t even play. The Blazers have yet to manage sustainable, clean offense in this series. Scoot Henderson has, for the most part, been excellent in this series besides for Game 4. The highs are high but the lows were evident last game, with the guard going 0/7 from the field and going scoreless for the entire game. Portland will presumably roll out Jrue Holiday, Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan. Clingan especially has been playing poorly this series, with the big man failing to post a positive plus-minus in all four games. He’s also yet to score in double digits in any of these games. And even worse, he’s shooting just 28.6% from the field despite taking nearly all of his shots at or near the rim. The Blazers will hope for a little more production out of their rising big man, but it’s still just his first postseason experience. In order for Portland to survive to extend this series, they’ll have to continue trying to steal extra possessions while Avdija applies pressure near the rim. It’s a lot tougher with Wembanyama in the equation, but they’ll have to make do. The Spurs outscored the Blazers 73-35 in the second half of Game 4.

San Antonio has reclaimed control because its defensive anchor returned, but it’s not like they really needed him, anyway. The Spurs proved in Game 3 that they can survive without him for stretches. Wembanyama missed Game 3 due to a concussion, but Stephon Castle stepped up with a monster 33 points and Dylan Harper added 27 points and 10 rebounds off the bench as San Antonio won 120-108 without Wemby. Then Wembanyama returned in Game 4, resulting in a 114-93 victory with De’Aaron Fox adding 28. Castle added another 16 points and eight assists, and Wembanyama finished with 27 points, 11 rebounds, seven blocks, and four steals. If Wembanyama can replicate this type of production on both ends, the Blazers realistically don’t have much of a chance to extend this series.

Spurs vs. Trail Blazers pick, best Bet

Best Bet: San Antonio Spurs -11.5 (-110)

San Antonio is back home with a 3-1 series lead and will look to wrap things up tonight to get plenty of rest before the next series begins. The Spurs have held Portland to under 100 points in both of Wembanyama’s complete games, but it seems as if the impact of his return is already priced in. Regardless of how large the spread is, the Spurs simply have better talent top-to-bottom, better two-way capabilities, and home court tonight.