The Vegas Golden Knights entered this week down 2-1 in their series against the Utah Mammoth. Now, they’re up 3-2 and on the brink of advancing to the next round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Heading into tonight’s Game 6, it’s fair to ask whether the extensive postseason experience of Vegas is enough to power the group past a scrappy underdog that’ll be playing in front of a passionate home crowd. What do the numbers tell us?

Here’s a Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Game 6 prediction and pick for Friday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Game 6 prediction, preview

So, the last two games of this series have each gone to overtime and Vegas has taken both of them to entirely swing the series. While Utah has shown incredible grit in storming back from down three goals in Game 4 and holding a lead heading into the final minute of Game 5 prior to an empty-net goal, it’s become increasingly clear that the playoff-proven squad might have the advantage here.

The collective experience of the Golden Knights’ core certainly goes a long way in a series such as this one. They’ve managed to clamp up in overtime nicely, but the overall numbers also suggest they maintain an edge even when the margins get significantly thinner come playoff time. They have a slight lead in xGF (11.98 to 10.78) and high-danger chances (49 to 38) in 5v5 play. While their power play sits at just 16.7%, they’ve generated twice as many of those high-danger chances (16 to eight) in 5v4 situations. Moreover, the Golden Knights’ penalty kill looks great at 92.3%, allowing only one goal allowed in 13 tries (of course, that sample remains somewhat limited).

The Mammoth are down, but they haven’t been entirely outclassed. After all, they’ve had their opponent on the ropes a couple of times and just haven’t finished the job. If there’s an area in which they have an advantage, it’s still in the goalie battle. Karel Vejmelka’s .890 SV% and 2.98 GAA may not impress, but he’s been a huge part of why Utah has a couple of wins to begin with. The numbers are close, but he’s largely been better overall than Carter Hart in the opposite net (.888 SV%, 3.02 GAA). Vejmelka is simply getting killed on those high-danger shots since he’s otherwise garnered a higher SV% than his counterpart in both low and medium-danger situations.

Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Game 6 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Golden Knights as -115 favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Mammoth come in slightly behind at -105 odds at home. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 54% of straight bets on Utah to win, 78% of wagers on the Mammoth to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 88% on the total’s over.

The over does indeed feel like a prudent bet tonight. Over 5.5 goals has now cashed in four of the five prior matchups in this series with two results of 4-2 and two more of 5-4, the latter of which came in the most recent contests. Even in the one game in which the under hit, there were still five combined goals scored in a 3-2 finish.

Both teams are averaging at least 28.3 shots on goal per game, marks which are admittedly propped up slightly by the two overtime contests. Neither goalie has put forth a particularly strong performance either, especially with both of them underperforming their xSV% and xGAA measures. With those factors in mind and the fact that Vejmelka himself is saving just over half the high-danger shots that Vegas has excelled at getting, I like the over once again in Game 6 on Friday.

Best bet: Over 5.5 goals (-135)