MLB Rivalry Weekend continues on Saturday with a featured Subway Series matchup in the evening. The New York Yankees downed the cross-town rival New York Mets last night in a 5-2 finish, taking the lead early and never letting up. Tonight, these foes battle once more as Carlos Rodon takes the mound for the second time this season against an opener-bulk combo.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Saturday’s Yankees vs. Mets matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Yankees vs. Mets prediction, preview

New York Yankees

The Bronx Bombers are 28-17 as they continue to pursue the top spot in the AL East. They remain two games shy and have hit a rough patch at 4-6 over their last 10 outings, but this struggling Mets group brings another get-right spot tonight. The Yankees remain third in OPS at .763 as a team on a .236/.330/.433 slash line, also producing an MLB-best .197 ISO with 67 homers, the most of any club. That’s translated to plenty of scoring with 5.07 runs per game, fifth most, though they’re scoring just 3.88 per game on the road. An 0.51 BB/K ratio ranks fourth in the sport, while their 41 stolen bases are also tied for fifth most. Over the last week though, the bats have gone cold with a .199 AVG, so that’s a trend worth taking note of. As for the pitching production, the Yankees are second in ERA at 3.19 and third in WHIP at 1.15, also ranking fifth in K-BB% at 15.7%. Narrowing things down to the bullpen, they’re still at an excellent 3.35 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and 14.1% K-BB%.

LHP Carlos Rodon makes the second start of his 2026 campaign after dealing with injuries for the first month-plus. In his lone appearance last Sunday, he went 4.1 innings with three earned runs allowed on two hits and five walks, though he struck out four batters. Historically, he’s always had an average walk rate at best though, so that’s not a huge concern moving forward.

New York Mets

The Mets have experienced a tough go of it so far in 2026 with an 18-26 record that slots them last in the NL East, but there’s just a glimmer of hope after going 6-4 over their last 10. Still, they’re scoring only 3.70 runs per game, which falls right in line with an MLB-worst OPS of .638 on a .225/.291/.347 slash line. A .122 ISO is entirely unimpressive and their 37 home runs are tied for sixth fewest. An 0.39 BB/K ratio is also below league average, and while a 20.9% K% is quite solid, an 8.2% BB% is near the bottom of the sport. If they could figure out how to hit again though, perhaps this team could win some games. Why’s that? The pitching staff is overall quite good, delivering a top-10 ERA of 3.78 and a 1.27 WHIP, also ranking sixth in K-BB% at 15.6%. Beyond that, the K% itself is third best in the MLB at 24.9%. If we limit the split to just relievers, the numbers sit at a 3.50 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and a 16.4% K-BB% as well.

The Mets will deploy RHP Huascar Brazoban as an opener today. He’s pitched very well in 18 outings with a 2.14 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 16 punchouts in 21 IP, bringing elite grades in average exit velocity and barrel rate. He paves the way for LHP David Peterson, who’s numbers in nine appearances aren’t nearly as good. He’s tossed to the tune of a 5.49 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 39.1 IP. While he’s forcing plenty of ground balls, the results haven’t been there otherwise. However, he’s amassed a 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with nine strikeouts in nine innings this month, so there’s a chance the tide could turn.

Yankees vs. Mets pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as -120 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight. The Mets come in at even +100 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at 8.5 combined runs between these sides.

Best Bet: NY Yankees first five innings (-115)

I quite like the Yankees to take the first five innings of this game since they get a date against Peterson for the bulk of that span. They’re third in OPS against southpaws at .778 even despite a low .261 BABIP, and a .221 ISO is obviously pretty wild in the split. If they get three or four innings against the lefty, that bodes extremely well for their chances to lead after the first five frames, even despite their mini-slump at the moment.

Slight Lean: Carlos Rodon over 2.5 walks (+152)

Rodon’s control hasn’t been stellar by any means in recent years, with just one season above a 30th-percentile walk rate over his last three campaigns. I don’t think he’ll issue five free passes again like he did in his season debut, but going over 2.5 walks is certainly a realistic outcome, especially if he sees a little more work than the 4.1 innings he got last time out.