The Pittsburgh Penguins lived to fight another day over the weekend as the offense finally woke up, taking a 4-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers. After staving off elimination from the Stanley Cup Playoffs, if just momentarily, they look to do so once more tonight as this series shifts back to Pittsburgh with the home team training 3-1. Has the momentum shifted, or is this one as good as over?

Here’s a Penguins vs. Flyers Game 5 prediction and pick for tonight’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Flyers vs. Penguins Game 5 prediction, preview

Saturday’s Game 4 was a momentary gasp of life for the Penguins. They scored four combined goals across the first three outings of this series while struggling to break a Flyers defense that mucks things up and keeps opposing shots on goal down. While they were held to just 21 SOG throughout the latest matchup, the Pens managed to score twice at even strength and once on the power play before adding an empty-netter for good measure at the end. Was that a sign of things to come?

Unless Pittsburgh has truly found the answer key for this Philadelphia blue line, it’s tough to tell. The Flyers are still doing the same things that got them to a 3-0 lead to begin the series, keeping shots down and giving up just 24.0 per game. Dan Vladar has performed admirably with a .926 SV% and the fourth-best mark in saves above expected among all playoff goalies. The penalty kill also sits at a PK% of 80.0%, a respectable number given how formidable the Penguins were on the man advantage during the regular season. In short, the defensive identity of this roster has remained intact and held up well, even against one of the best offenses in the NHL.

Despite having a PP% of just 15.4% in this series, the Flyers’ attack has also showed up consistently enough to take advantage of a poor Penguins defense. They’re still not a high-volume team in terms of shots, but they’ve averaged 3.25 goals per game, fifth most in the postseason. The question is whether that came as a result of Stuart Skinner’s struggles (.873 SV%; 3.08 GAA) through the first three contests or simply the state of the defense as a whole — Pittsburgh ranked ninth worst with 3.15 goals allowed per game in the regular season. For what it’s worth, Arturs Silovs got the start in Game 4 and stopped 28-of-30 attempts he faced, good for a .933 SV%. If he plays like that tonight, perhaps the Penguins have a chance after all.

Flyers vs. Penguins Game 5 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Penguins as -135 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight, while the Flyers come in with +114 odds on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 55% of straight bets on Philadelphia to win, 72% of wagers on the Flyers to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 77% on the total’s over.

We picked the Penguins on the Moneyline last time out and cashed that bet at even odds. There’s certainly a world in which they follow it up with another win tonight after stalling some of their opponents’ momentum on Saturday, and if there’s any stat that stands out looking at the splits, it’s that they connected on the power play at a 26.1% rate at home during the regular season in comparison to a 21.4% clip on the road. That’s not nothing, and I do think the offense may feel a little better after matching their series scoring total in just one outing. There’s certainly enough talent to squeak out another win thanks to the veteran core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell and Erik Karlsson.

However, they’ve struggled in three of four games during this series and the Philadelphia defense will surely stick to the game plan that’s worked. Vladar is playing great hockey, and while Silovs looked good in Game 4, he finished the regular season with an .888 SV% and 3.07 GAA. Either the skaters in front of him will have to break through the Flyers’ blue line to provide plenty of scoring support, or he’ll have to stand on his head to survive a low-scoring affair. Frankly, I like the Flyers to win this one outright and advance to round two.

Best bet: PHI Flyers ML (+114)