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The New York Yankees are riding a five-game winning streak into the second leg of their current series. Out on the West Coast, they duel the Athletics at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. The opening contest ended in an 8-2 win for the visitors last night, so can the Bronx Bombers keep the heat going into tonight’s late slate?
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Yankees vs. Athletics matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
At 35-22, the Yankees have the second-best record in the American League but remains second in their own division. They’re just 1.5 games shy of the AL East lead, but their run differential of +95 remains the third best in the sport as a whole. Plus, they’re 7-3 across their last 10 contests. New York scores an average of 5.05 runs a game and ranks second in OPS at .773, slashing .243/.332/.441 in the process. An ISO of .198 is atop the MLB, as are the Yankees’ 86 home runs. Despite the heavy power, they’re also fifth in BB/K ratio at 0.50, so this is a team chock full of professional hitters. The pitching staff as a whole is also elite, tying for the second-best ERA at 3.12 with a 1.16 WHIP and a 15.0% K-BB%. The bullpen is also quite solid, bringing a 3.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and a 13.0% K-BB%.
LHP Ryan Weathers takes the mound for his 10th start of the campaign tonight after going 2-2 in his appearances. He’s thrown to the tune of a 3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 65 strikeouts in 57.1 IP. A 28.3% K% is good for the 85th percentile and a 7.0% BB% sits in the 73rd.
The AL West madhouse continues as the Athletics chase first place in their own division. They’re 27-30 overall and just 1.5 games shy of the top spot, bringing a run differential of -31 and a four-game losing streak into tonight’s outing. The A’s average a respectable 4.18 runs per game and are 11th in OPS at .716. The full slash line comes out to .246/.327/.388 with a .142 ISO and 58 homers, the latter of which falls around the middle of the pack. However, they’re also seventh in BB/K ratio at 0.45, another positive. What we see here is that the bats are more than enough to win games, but the arms could use some work. The Athletics’ staff has an ERA of 4.41 with a 1.42 WHIP and a 10.3% K-BB. That ERA falls all the way to 23rd while the WHIP ranks 25th among all teams. As for the relievers alone, they contribute a 4.32 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 11.2% K-BB%.
For the A’s, RHP J.T Ginn draws the start tonight. He’s appeared in 12 games with nine starts so far, going 2-3 in those outings. He has a 3.19 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 48 punchouts in his 53.2 IP. He keeps exit velocity down quite well and is above average in barrel and ground ball rate.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as -156 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight. The Athletics come in with +129 odds to win outright. The total sits at 9.5 combined runs between these two teams.
Ginn looks to have taken a step forward this year, and while I don’t think he totally shuts New York down in the early going, I do think that he’ll mostly limit the damage. The later innings when the bullpen comes in are what I’m more worried about. Conversely, Weathers may prove tough to hit for the A’s, who have plenty of offense but are in a funk with a .645 OPS over the last two weeks. I don’t expect a huge blowout or anything in this game, but I do anticipate the Yankees winning by a comfortable margin of two or more runs. They’re the better team and they’re hotter at the moment, so another matchup at this hitter-happy park won’t hurt this pick.
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