Zach Thompson analyzes his three favorite home run props from Sunday’s 15-game MLB schedule to celebrate Father’s Day.
Major League Baseball celebrates Father’s Day with all 30 teams on the scoreboard in 15 games this Sunday. As usual, most of the games are early in the afternoon, with three games starting just after 4:00 pm. ET and Sunday Night Baseball wrapping things up between the Phillies and the Mets from the City of Brotherly Love. There could be some rain on Dad’s parade in Atlanta, Kansas City and Chicago, but there are also plenty of great weather spots and favorable hitting environments and matchups to consider. Taking a look at all the environments, matchups and odds, my top home run props from Saturday are T.J. Rumfield, Zach Neto and Bryce Harper.
It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| T.J. Rumfield | Rockies | Rumfield has 4 home runs, a .474 ISO, and a .532 wOBA in his last 10 games and will face Jared Jones, who has let lefties hit four homers with a .390 ISO, 58.1% hard-hit rate and 16.1% barrel rate. |
| Zach Neto | Angels | In a great home run environment and matchup against Jack Perkins and the A’s in Sacramento, Neto comes in with six homers and a 25% barrel rate over his last 14 games. |
| Bryce Harper | Phillies | Harper has three homers and a 60% hard-hit rate over his last 17 games. He’s in a lefty-lefty matchup but is 10-for-27 with two doubles and a home run against David Peterson in the past. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Sunday.
Rumfield has been one of the Rockies’ best lefty bats this season, and the spring training addition from the Yankees has developed into a mainstay in the heart of the order. He doesn’t have elite metrics, but has shown he can go yard in favorable matchups, especially in the rarified air of Coors Field.
He has four homers in his last 10 games with a .474 ISO, .532 wOBA and .368 batting average over that stretch. He went yard on Friday against the Pirates in the first game of this series.
Six of his 11 homers have been at home, and 10 of them have come against righties, who he has a .390 wOBA against on the year. He’ll be on the strong side of both those splits as he takes on Jared Jones on Sunday.
Jones has made just four starts this season and has given up four homers in his 17 1/3 innings. All four of those home runs were hit by lefties like Rumfield, who have a .439 batting average, .390 ISO, 58.1% hard-hit rate, and 16.1% barrel rate against Jones in his limited work this season.
With Rumfield so productive lately and Jones getting hammered by lefties, getting him at over +500 at Coors Field is a great Sunday afternoon value play in these home run props.
Neto and the Angels are looking to earn a sweep with the A’s in Sacramento, where the temperature will be warm and the wind will be blowing out. Neto is trying to fill in some of the offensive production the team is missing with Mike Trout (hamstring) and Jorge Soler (oblique) on the injured list.
He’s picked up his power pace lately, smashing six homers in his last 14 games while hitting .200 (12-for-60) but with a 25% barrel rate, .348 wOBA and .350 ISO. He homered on Friday and is up to 16 homers on the season, with nine on the road and 12 against righties.
He’ll be facing righty Jack Perkins, who he is 2-for-4 against him with a double and a homer in their limited past meetings. Perkins has a 6.15 ERA on the year and has allowed four homers in 25 1/3 innings at home. Four of the five homers he has allowed have been to righties, who are hitting .295 with a .218 ISO and .375 wOBA against him on the season.
Neto will be on the strong side of those splits and has a good chance to go yard in what shapes up to be a high-scoring slugfest of a series finale.
Harper hit for the cycle on Saturday, going 4-for-5 with his 16th homer of the year.
Harper has hit three of those 16 homers in his last 17 games with a .383 wOBA and a .500 SLG. He has a 60% hard-hit rate over that span, which is a significant improvement over his 45.9% hard-hit rate for the season.
He’ll face lefty David Peterson on Sunday Night Baseball to close out the slate, and even though it’s a lefty-lefty matchup, Harper has had success in the past. He is 10-for-27 with two doubles and a home run against Peterson in their past meetings, and he’ll look to follow up his big Saturday with another homer on Sunday to deliver on these nice value odds of over 4:1.
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