Pearce Dietrich gives his top bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.
Texas turns into a demolition derby every spring. Twelve cautions painted the 2025 race yellow, and six of them flew in the final third of the running. Pure speed at this place is a setup for heartbreak — survival, pit road, and clean air decide who lifts the trophy.
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The Melon Man has finished second at Texas twice in the Gen 7 era. The first runner-up came in 2023 from fifth on the grid. The second came last spring from 31st on the grid — the kind of starting spot most contenders never recover from. Across four Gen 7 starts at the track, his average finish is 12.2 with two top-fives.
His 2026 has been quiet. Kansas was a 26th, Vegas a 17th, and the noise around Trackhouse is louder than the results. None of that matters at a wreckfest where Chastain has a proven track record of survival. He took second from the back of the field in the checkers a year ago. At 35-1, the price assumes he can’t do it again — and Texas keeps showing that assumption wrong.
RFK arrived in 2026. Keselowski led 54 laps and finished second at Darlington a few weeks ago, then backed it up with a sixth at Kansas. The car is fast, the driver is hungry, and the team has been one tire stop or one restart from a win for two months.
Texas history backs the bet. His Gen 7 average finish at the track is 11.2 with three top-tens, including a runner-up in 2024 from 22nd on the grid. That’s the same chaos profile Chastain owns — track position built through pit cycles and survival, not qualifying. With his current form and a track that punishes the favorites, 35-1 is too long for a driver who’s already finished second here once and is racing better than he was when he did it.
Rowdy was running third in the closing laps at Texas in 2025 before spinning in turn four and burying his day. RCR moved Jim Pohlman off the No. 8 pit box this week and gave Andy Street the headset for the rest of the season. Street ran the team for the final five races of 2025 — Busch finished fifth at Phoenix in the season finale, with him calling the race. Texas is starting one of those reunions. New voice on the box, old chemistry, a track Busch has finished on the lead lap of three years running.
The 2026 season has been a disaster — a 35th at Kansas tells you everything about where the No. 8 sits in points. But longshot tickets aren’t bought on points. They’re bought on the ceiling, and Busch’s Texas ceiling is real. He owns a Cup win at this track from 2020, and last spring, he was running third late before contact. At 70-1 in a race where finishing matters more than starting, one clean afternoon pays the ticket. Texas owes him one, and he owes everyone watching a vintage Rowdy run.
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