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Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s slate: Moises Ballesteros and Matt Olson.
Let’s break them down.
In 2025, only one pitcher gave up more home runs than Zack Littell, who served up 36 long balls over the course of six months. Well, it seems like Littell is no longer content with second place. The right-hander is going for No. 1 in 2026. Now a member of the Nationals, Littell has surrendered seven home runs in just 19.0 innings of work. For those that don’t want to do the math themselves, that’s a whopping 3.32 dingers per nine. According to the underlying statistics, Littell isn’t getting unlucky, either. The 30-year-old sports a nasty second percentile opponent average exit velocity (94.0), along with a 12th percentile barrel rate (14.5%). It’s not what you want to see — unless you’re looking to make a couple home run prop bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Anyone could take Littell deep on Wednesday, but let’s focus on Olson. The ironman is off to his strongest start at the plate since 2023, with six home runs and a .298 ISO across 108 plate appearances. Olson’s also in possession of 95th percentile marks in both expected slugging (.602) and barrel rate (20.3%). The veteran first baseman only has a single hit so far in this series, but it is a long ball. Let’s hope he makes that two this evening.
It’s been a funny season for the Phillies. I don’t want to say that the team’s struggles have gone under the radar — Philadelphia fans are notoriously level-headed — but your seven-game losing streak doesn’t look as bad when the rival Mets have lost 12 in a row, right? Right?! Well, I have some more bad news for anyone who loves the Phillies: Taijuan Walker is going to pitch tonight. Yes, it’ll be behind opener Kyle Backhus, but Walker will still be expected to work a bulk of the innings for Philadelphia. To make matters worse? The wind is blowing out tonight at Wrigley Field. This could get ugly.
Walker’s been quite awful in 2024 and 2025, but things are at a whole new level in 2026. The RHP owns a 9.18 ERA and a 7.37 FIP across 18.2 innings of action, a stretch where Walker’s walked 10 opponents and given up six home runs. His biggest issue, by far, has been opposing LHBs. To wit, lefties are currently combining to slash .362/.424/.690 with a .478 wOBA. This could be the opportunity for slumping bats like Michael Busch (+740) or Pete Crow-Armstrong (+650) to break out, yet I’ll take my chances with Ballesteros. The rookie is benefitting from an unsustainable BABIP, yet in 48 plate appearances against RHPs, Ballesteros has a .238 ISO and a 1.101 OPS. Not too shabby for a 22-year-old slugger.
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