Griffin Wong gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays.
Though the MLB regular season is only just over a month old, there have already been some major shakeups. Most notably, two managers — each of whom had made a World Series during his tenure — have already been let go.
One of those managers was Boston Red Sox boss Alex Cora, who was fired on Saturday in advance of the team’s series finale against the Baltimore Orioles. Chad Tracy took over, won the decider against the Orioles, and has split the first two games of a series with the pennant-holding Toronto Blue Jays. The finale will be played at 3:07 p.m. ET this afternoon at the Rogers Centre.
The Red Sox will send Brayan Bello to the mound, and the Blue Jays will counter with Eric Lauer.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cora’s firing came as somewhat of a surprise, given his pedigree, but it made sense in the context of Boston’s under-performance to begin the season. The Red Sox had won just two series all season and sat at 10-17 after his firing, an extremely disappointing start given that they made the playoffs last season. They’ve slipped from ninth in OPS in 2025 to 28th so far this season despite offseason acquisition William Contreras playing tremendously; Trevor Story, Caleb Durbin, and Jarren Duran are all below the Mendoza Line. Additionally, though Boston still has a strong bullpen, its starting rotation has collapsed, posting the fifth-highest ERA, with 2025 Cy Young Award runner-up Garrett Crochet and Bello accounting for the majority of the struggles. To be fair, it has gotten a little unlucky; its run differential suggests that it should be two games better, and Crochet, Bello, and Roman Anthony have enough of a track record that expecting an eventual bounce-back is reasonable.
Toronto has been pretty disappointing as well, given that it came two outs away from winning a World Series last fall. The Blue Jays are just 13-16 with the run differential of a 12-17 team, and though it has won each of the past two series, it has struggled to maintain any momentum. Toronto’s offense has dropped off even more dramatically than the Red Sox’s; after finishing last season third in OPS, the Blue Jays rank fifth-to-last in that stat so far this season, and their pitching staff — a problem last season — hasn’t been good enough to compensate. It’s likely that Toronto’s numbers will normalize at some point, especially once George Springer, Addison Barger, and Alejandro Kirk eventually return, but the Blue Jays desperately need an infusion of young pitching talent outside of Trey Yesavage.
Bello has had a brutal start to the season, leading the American League with 22 earned runs allowed, and he’s coming off of his worst outing of the season, a 3.1-inning, 13-hit, eight-run disaster against the Orioles last Friday. His advanced profile doesn’t paint a very rosy picture of him, either; his FIP is 8.26, his xERA is 8.24, and he’s basically only excelled at generating whiffs and ground balls. Most worryingly, there isn’t necessarily a quick fix; his velocity is down on each of his pitches relative to last season, and his spin rates are lower. Even in 2025, he struggled to generate chases or strike batters out, which could definitely be a problem against a Toronto team with among the best bat-to-ball skills. He might be able to get away with some balls in play, given that the Blue Jays rank second-to-last in barrel rate this season and Boston is among the league’s best fielding teams, but his numbers really aren’t promising. The splits also aren’t in his favor: Toronto has been significantly better against righties and at home, and Bello has been worse on the road throughout his career.
Lauer probably has a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup. While his ERA this season is also ghastly (6.75), he’s given up three or fewer runs in four of his five bulk pitching appearances, which is more than can be said for Bello. Plus, his advanced profile is a little bit better; while his FIP is nearly as high as his ERA, a 4.56 xERA is respectable, and he’s done a good job limiting hard hits. He does rank in both the bottom third in both strikeout rate and walk rate, but the Red Sox have been below the league median in both. Plus, his biggest issue is that he struggles to generate grounders, and Boston has hit grounders at the league’s second-highest rate this season. Given his matchup advantages, he should be able to produce a few solid innings, even though the Red Sox have been much better on the road and against lefties. I don’t expect Lauer to bounce all the way back to the 3.18 ERA that he finished with in 2025, given that his pitch velocities and spin rates are down virtually across the board, but even this version of him has displayed fewer glaring red flags than this version of Bello.
Statistical decline backed up by mechanical decline is always concerning, and while both starters have experienced it this season, Bello’s dip has been starker than that of Lauer. I also simply trust the Blue Jays’ offense more despite what they’ve demonstrated this season, given the absolute clinic they put on in the second half of 2025.
Guerrero hasn’t had much power this season, hitting just two homers, but he’s clearly seeing the ball well, ranking second in the American League with a .340 batting average, and he’s had at least two hits in two of his last three games. Bello likes to throw sinkers to righties, and Guerrero has posted a batting average north of .370 against righty sinkers in both 2025 and 2026.
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