The New York Knicks are just one win away from punching their ticket to the NBA Finals for the first time since the 1998-99 season. The Cleveland Cavaliers will look to defend home court and keep their season alive tonight. No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit, and Cleveland has not provided much inspiration for why this series will be different. But there have only been 24 sweeps in Conference Finals history, and the Cavaliers will start by attempting to win tonight to avoid this fate.

Looking at the odds for Game 4, the Knicks enter as 2.5-point favorites and hold -142 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cavaliers hold +120 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 218.5 points.

Knicks at Cavaliers preview

The New York Knicks have played like an inspired team in the postseason. After finishing the regular season with a 53-29 record to earn the third seed in the Eastern Conference, New York has gone up a few levels this postseason. It has battled some notable ups and downs, which included winning the In-Season Tournament and going 2-9 over an 11-game stretch. New York took down the Atlanta Hawks in six games in the opening round, swept the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round, and it has a chance to accomplish the same fate tonight. It has won 10 consecutive playoff games leading into tonight. On the season overall, the Knicks have gone 54-42 against the spread, and the game total is 45-51 to the over/under.

Even while the surrounding roster has been upgraded, Jalen Brunson remains the heart of the Knicks’ attack. The Villanova product posted averages of 26.0 points, 6.8 assists and 3.3 rebounds across the regular season, and he has had some of his best moments when the lights have been the brightest. He is averaging 27.8 points and 6.7 assists across the playoffs. Karl-Anthony Towns provides balance in their attack, adding 16.8 points, 10.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game across this playoff run. Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart are the glue of this team, and each has had some impressive flashes in this series. This is the deepest Knicks roster of the Brunson era, with players like Mitchell Robinson, Jordan Clarkson, Miles McBride and Jose Alvarado each capable of putting their fingerprints on this series.

As a team, the Knicks averaged 116.5 points per game, which ranked 10th in the NBA across the regular season. They also ranked third in offensive rating, 11th in field-goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 110.1 points per game against New York, which ranks fifth in the league. Mike Brown’s squad also ranks fifth in opponent field-goal percentage and 20th in opponent three-point percentage.

The Cleveland Cavaliers took a major midseason risk by pulling the plug on the Darius Garland era and making the trade for James Harden. The Cavaliers finished the season with the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, going 52-30 in the regular season, including 19-7 after the addition of James Harden. Cleveland is coming off back-to-back seven-game series victories over the Raptors and Pistons. It has lost in the Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons and is one loss away from the same fate. Not only has Cleveland lost three straight games, but it has been beaten by 13 and 16 points in the past two games, with the Knicks holding full control. On the season overall, the Cavaliers have gone 40-59 against the spread, and the game total is 51-48 to the over/under.

Even following Harden’s addition, Donovan Mitchell still headlines the production for Cleveland. The seven-time All-Star posted averages of 27.9 points, 5.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds across the regular season, and 25.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists in the playoffs. Harden added 20.5 points and 7.7 assists across his 26 games in Cleveland, and 19.6 points, 5.7 assists and 5.2 rebounds since the postseason kicked off. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen play a vital role on the interior, while Max Strus, Jaylon Tyson and Dean Wade also play significant roles.

As a team, the Cavaliers scored 119.5 points per game across the regular season, which ranked fourth in the NBA. Cleveland also ranks sixth in offensive rating, eighth in field-goal percentage and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents have scored 115.4 points per game against the Cavaliers, which ranks 15th. They also rank 15th in defensive rating, eighth in opponent field-goal percentage and 26th in opponent three-point percentage.

Series Takeaways

The Knicks have been in complete dominance so far in this series. 

Cleveland put up its most admirable fight in Game 1, pushing New York to overtime before the Knicks cruised to a 115-104 win. The Cavaliers extended their lead to as many as 22 and held control for 59% of the matchup. Cleveland had New York on the ropes, leading 93-71 with 7:52 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Knicks closed the matchup on a dominant 44-11 run to close off the impressive comeback win.

The effects of this heartbreaking loss stuck with the Cavaliers in Game 2. The Knicks jumped all over the Cavaliers to cruise to a 109-93 win in which Cleveland was limited to 39% shooting from the field and 26% from beyond the three-point arc.

The series traveled to Cleveland for Game 3, but the results remained the same. New York led from wire-to-wire, stretching the deficit to as many as 17. The Cavaliers’ effort level down the stretch left plenty to be desired, and they were never able to cut the deficit in a threatening manner down the stretch. 

Knicks at Cavaliers Game 4 prediction, pick

Entering the series, there was a fair case to be made that these teams were at similar talent levels. But the Knicks have outclassed the Cavaliers in just about every notable matchup and metric. The playoffs can sometimes be a war of attrition, and the Cavaliers are coming off back-to-back seven-game series, while the Knicks had nine full days to rest following their previous series sweep, which is a clear factor. There is a difference in energy level and hunger between the two sides, and don’t expect this to change just two days removed from their previous matchup. Whether it is fatigue or the weight of the moment, the Cavaliers’ top players simply have not matched the level of the Knicks.

Generally, these are the types of situations where pride tends to kick in for a team that had to earn their way to even be on this stage. However, the effort level has been far from convincing from the Cavaliers’ perspective.

On the other side, the Knicks smell blood in the water and will be eager to get the series over as soon as possible. New York has clearly benefited from the extra rest in this series, especially when considering the time off that OG Anunoby had to rest his hamstring issue from the previous series. Especially considering the bloodbath in the Western Conference Finals, expect the Knicks to bring a full-out effort and work to finish the series as soon as possible. They have won 10 straight postseason games, with nine of these coming by more than double-digits.

There is a calming presence when the ball is in Jalen Brunson’s hands in crunch time for the Knicks. Cleveland has not found the balance of doubling the star guard to force the ball out of his hands versus guarding him straight-up. Brunson has masterfully answered the defensive schemes thrown his direction and put the Knicks in the best possible position to win on just about an every-play basis. In contrast, calming would not be a word used to describe the feeling when James Harden and Donovan Mitchell are holding the ball right now.

Expect the stars to shine brighter on the Knicks’ roster tonight and for New York to bring its best effort to officially punch its ticket to the NBA Finals. The Cavaliers have not had an answer for the Knicks on either side of the ball, and this is not a roster with a track record of holding the necessary mental toughness to overcome this type of hole. Expect more of the same from what we have seen in the first three games in this series, and for the Knicks to finish off the sweep on the road tonight.

Best Bet: Knicks Moneyline (-135)