The Dodgers (20-10) and Marlins (12-17) close this midweek set in Los Angeles with a pitching matchup that looks like a lid on paper but plays looser once you zoom out. It’s a 3:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Dodger Stadium, clear skies, low-70s, slight breeze out—nothing suppressive. Miami just stole a 2-1 game Tuesday, but that came with Shohei Ohtani out of the lineup and the Dodgers stranding traffic all night. This version of L.A. is different. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Miami Marlins.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Dodgers vs. Marlins prediction, preview

Tyler Glasnow and Sandy Alcantara set the tone, but they don’t seal the game the way the matchup suggests. Glasnow has been elite—2.45 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 38 strikeouts against seven walks, only 16 hits allowed in 33 innings—but Miami is not a dead offense against right-handed pitching, hitting .263/.334/.405 with a .739 OPS and enough contact to create traffic. Alcantara is controlling contact with a 3.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, but the 27 strikeouts against 13 walks matter against a Dodgers lineup that turns baserunners into damage. L.A. is hitting .274/.350/.457 overall and .274/.346/.453 vs righties with 84 walks and consistent extra-base volume, which puts pressure on a lower-strikeout, traffic-sensitive profile.

The player layer splits the scoring paths. The Dodgers bring layered impact—Ohtani back in with a .398 OBP and .500 SLG, Freddie Freeman at .286/.345/.481 vs righties with 10 extra-base hits, Will Smith at .296/.346/.437, and Andy Pages driving volume with 35 hits, 25 RBI and a .528 slugging mark. Max Muncy’s nine home runs give them lift behind that table. Miami answers through contact and sequencing. Xavier Edwards is hitting .339 with a .438 OBP and controls the top of the order with elite bat-to-ball. Otto Lopez is pushing hit volume into the mid-30s and just posted a three-hit game. Liam Hicks—if active—brings the power at .333/.363/.625 vs righties with six home runs, while Kyle Stowers and the lower half keep innings alive. It’s not star-for-star, but it’s enough to generate two-to-four runs if the traffic shows up.

Marlins vs. Dodgers pick, best bet

The under case is obvious: two starters capable of six clean innings. But the way those innings are built creates openings. Alcantara’s lower strikeout rate paired with walks invites sustained pressure from a Dodgers lineup that stacks OBP and power. Glasnow suppresses rallies, but Miami’s path is narrower—not nonexistent—built on Edwards/Lopez contact and one extra-base swing to flip an inning. A high-scoring game only needs one starter to bend and the other lineup to contribute just enough.

Over nine innings, the bullpen layer is where the game opens up. Miami’s leverage group is thinner with Pete Fairbanks on the IL, and Tyler Phillips had to close Tuesday after earlier instability, pushing more middle relief into meaningful spots. The Dodgers are not pristine either, with usage building and key arms likely unavailable, which increases the chance of non-clean innings on both sides. That’s how a 2-1 or 3-2 game through five turns into a 6-4 or 7-3 final instead of staying compressed.

Best bet: Over 8.5 (-115). The board is sitting at 8.5 (-115), and this is the cleanest way to play it. You’re not laying -135 into a five-inning window against Alcantara, and you’re not asking the Dodgers to cover margin against a Miami offense that can scratch runs. This bet captures both scoring lanes—L.A.’s ability to get to five through OBP and power, and Miami’s ability to contribute against Glasnow and the back half. The number is playable to around -120; once it moves to 9 without plus money, the edge tightens.

Projected score: Dodgers 6, Marlins 4

Best bet: Dodgers vs. Marlins o8.5 total runs (-115)

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