Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
National League Central rivals are set to meet this afternoon at PNC Park. The Reds (38-42) have fallen short of expectations coming off of a postseason berth in 2025. However, Cincinnati has added hope today with staff ace Chase Burns on the mound. As for the Pirates (41-41), it’s been a surprisingly good 2026 campaign. Can Pittsburgh even up this series on Saturday?
The Reds are favorites (-118) over the Pirates, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh on DraftKings Sportsbook.
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Chase Burns on the bump for Cincinnati this afternoon. It’s been a remarkable season for the 23-year-old, already among the National League’s most potent pitchers. Through 85.2 innings of work 15 starts), he’s accounted for a 2.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 102 strikeouts (10.7 K/9). A look at the advanced metrics proves those numbers are no fluke. The right-hander ranks within the 88th percentile in xERA (2.92), xBA (.119), chase rate (34.6%), whiff rate (33.2%) and strikeout rate (30.0%). Burns has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 15 starts.
Navigating this Pittsburgh lineup won’t be easy, even for an ace such as Burns. The Buccos are averaging 5.04 runs per game, fourth-most in the majors. That number jumps up to an MLB-best 5.42 runs per game when playing at home. However, the Pirates aren’t at 100% right now. Franchise cornerstone Oneil Cruz is sidelined with a hand injury. Ditto for first baseman Spencer Horwitz, out due to a hamstring strain. To boot, Burns has had success in this spot before. Over two meetings (12.0 innings) with Pittsburgh this season, he’s held the team scoreless.
As for the Pirates, Jared Jones will get the nod on Saturday. Despite plenty of hype, the fireballer hasn’t had much luck since returning from injury in late May. Over five starts (20.1 IP), he’s recorded a 5.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 21 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). With that being said, elite stuff should have Pittsburgh fans hopeful that the 24-year-old can turn things around. This season, he sits within the 97th percentile in fastball velocity (98.7 MPH) and whiff rate (33.3%). Jones’ struggles shouldn’t be dismissed entirely, but they feel more like a case of shaking off the rust.
Fortunately for the Pirates, this is an ideal spot for their starter. The Reds are striking out at a National League-worst rate of 9.48 times per game. In addition, they’ve put up the fourth-worst OPS in baseball during the month of June (.663). Cincinnati is only putting up 4.21 runs per game, tenth-worst in the league this season. To make matters worse, the Reds have the fifth-lowest OPS against right-handed pitching (.681). Even if Jones isn’t at his best, it’s difficult to envision him getting shelled in this one.
Burns’ success this season speaks for itself at this point. There’s always a risk of a letdown start, but he’s been too dominant to fade at this point. However, the Reds are an absolute mess at the plate. Their propensity for striking out isn’t ideal when facing a high-velocity arm such as Jones. Expect both of these young hurlers to deal on Saturday.
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