Zach Thompson shares his three favorite MLB no run first inning (NRFI) prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate.
Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple. Here are my top 3 NRFI plays for Monday:
Let’s break down those three options in more detail and see why the numbers support those three NRFI plays for Monday.
We’ll start today’s NRFI props with the NL East matchup in D.C. between the Marlins and Nats. Miami will give the ball to Sandy Alcantara to open the series, while the home team counters with Cade Cavalli.
Cavalli comes into this start on a nice roll. The 27-year-old has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts and has lowered his ERA to 3.62 on the season. He has a 3.01 FIP and 1.41 WHIP overall, but he has been especially effective in the first inning of his starts. Cavalli has allowed no runs in the first inning in 10 of his 12 starts this season, including nine straight coming into Monday night’s matchup.
On the other side, Alcantara has allowed no runs in nine of his 12 first innings this season and has a 74.6% NRFI% during his career, which is above league average.
For the season, each team is within a game of the NRFI league average, with the Nats slightly above the league average and the Marlins slightly below. The Marlins took two of the three games in their earlier series this season, and this exact pitching matchup took place in the series finale of that set, resulting in a 5-2 Marlins win after no runs were scored in the first inning.
Moving to the AL Central, let’s attack another divisional contest for NRFI. The White Sox are just a game out of the division lead after sweeping the Tigers, and they’ll face the Twins for the second week in a row. On Monday, they’ll give the ball to rookie David Sandlin against veteran Joe Ryan. I highlighted Sandlin as one of my top MLB DFS value plays for Monday, and I also like this NRFI at solid odds.
Joe Ryan will get the ball first in this matchup and will have to navigate the power-packed top of the White Sox order. The veteran is usually good in the first inning, hitting NRFI in 72.2% of his career starts and eight of his 11 outings this year, including last week against the White Sox. Ryan went 7 2/3 innings in that start and allowed just two unearned runs on five hits with nine strikeouts.
Sandlin gave up a leadoff dinger to Byron Buxton in his MLB debut against the Twins last week, busting his NRFI right away. He bounced back, though, and retired the next 18 straight batters he faced to earn the win. He’ll look to continue his mastery of Minnesota’s lineup, but without that slip-up at the beginning in this rematch.
The Twins are just above league average with a 50% NRFI rate this season, while the White Sox are slightly below with a 45.6% NRFI rate. Minnesota does have an unusual four-game streak of a run being scored on either side in the first inning, but this solid pitching matchup should bring that streak to a stop on Monday night.
In the last game of the night, the Mariners welcome the Mets to pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, which has the second-highest NRFI rate of all current ballparks since 2005. This season, it hasn’t been as good for NRFI, but the starting pitching matchup for Monday night has a good chance to deliver an NRFI to close out the evening.
The Mariners will open the series with Emerson Hancock on the hill. Hancock is riding a three-game NRFI streak and has pitched nine shutout first innings in his 11 games this season. The 27-year-old has been one of the most improved pitchers since last year and has slashed his ERA from 4.90 last year to 2.78 this season. His K% has jumped from 16.6% to 25.1%, and he’s been especially good against lefties with just a .209 average and .279 wOBA on that side of the splits. The Mets lineup typically has lefties near the top, so Hancock has a good chance to start strong.
On the other side, the Mets are planning on Sean Manaea handling most of the work as a bulk reliever on Monday night, but they’ll be using Austin Warren as an opener for the first time this season. Warren has worked 19 1/3 innings in his 14 games out of the bullpen, going 1-1 with an impressive 1.40 ERA and 27.8% K%. He has not allowed a run in nine of his last 10 appearances.
While Warren will be making the first start of his career, he has been effective enough out of the bullpen to like his chances of hanging a goose egg in the first frame. With Hancock continuing to emerge as a great option as well, the odds on this late-night matchup are definitely strong enough to make it a good NRFI option this Monday night.
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