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We’ve got a massive 13-game slate for Friday’s MLB action. TGIF!
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $200K Rally Cap [$50K to 1st]
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers vs. Athletics, $8,500 — Eovaldi has gotten off to a rough start this season, posting a 5.06 ERA with a 4.42 FIP. He’s allowed five home runs through 26.2 innings after serving up only 10 in 130 innings last season. The strikeout rate is still good at 23.8% while the BABIP is .354, so he’s gotten unlucky. In addition, most of the damage came in the first two starts of the season when he allowed five and six earned runs. Since then, he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in three starts with one shutout. And that came against these Athletics, going seven innings, walking two, striking out seven and allowing only three hits, good for 30.2 FPTS. Athletics are eighth in strikeouts and 22nd in wRC+.
Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, $6,400 — The strikeout rate is 24.3% for Kikuchi and he’s only served up three home runs through 24 innings. But, but, but…the ERA is 5.63 while the walk rate is 9.9%. Let’s bring it back to the top, though, as the FIP is much lower at 4.02 while the BABIP is an elevated .362. In his most recent outing, Kikuchi went six innings, walked one and struck out eight without allowing an earned run on four hits, good for 25.9 FPTS. Now for the matchup. Against left-handed pitching, Kansas City is 10th in strikeouts, 26th in ISO, 27th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+.
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs, $4,600 — Muncy has been on quite the tear to start the season, belting eight home runs in 93 plate appearances. He’s slashing .293/.376/.598 with a .305 ISO. The batting average is buoyed by an elevated .340 BABIP, but the power is real. The average exit velocity is 91.7 mph, hard hit rate is 52.7% and the barrel rate is 16.4%. He has three multi-home run games this season. Now he faces Jameson Taillon, who’s already allowed six home runs in 22.2 innings. Four of those were off the bat of lefties. He’s allowing a 22.9 degree launch angle, 12.5% barrel rate and a 72.8 mph bat speed.
Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox, $2,400 — Mayo is slashing .164/.261/.295 with a .131 ISO through 69 plate appearances. That includes his last two games in which he hit a home run in both. The BABIP is only. 200 and he posted a .171 last season, so the positive regression train has already left the station. Brayan Bello has a 5.77 FIP with a 1.1% K-BB%.
Taylor Ward, Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox, $4,400 — It’s been a bizarro season for Ward in that the batting average is high but the power is low. Ward is slashing .283/.395/.444 after being the .250 range and below the prior three seasons. The batting average has been fueled by the .338 BABIP, so that’s going to regress. The strikeout rate is only 16% after being in the 25% range the prior two seasons. I do not believe that this is the New World Order. Ward has one home run on the season despite having an average exit velocity of 90.2 mph and a launch angle of 17.2 degrees. He just hasn’t been barreling up the ball, as the barrel rate is only 6.2%. That’s going to get into the double digits at some point.
MJ Melendez, New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies, $2,400 — Since being called up for Juan Soto and Jared Young, Melendez has hit one home run in 18 plate appearances. The ISO is .313 but the strikeout rate is a ridiculous 44.4% while the walk rate is 11.1%. This is what Melendez does. The .313 batting average is due to the .571 BABIP. He’s going to regress, but that doesn’t mean it has to happen tonight. He’s feeling good and is super cheap. And we know he has power so the risk/reward seems good.
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