Julian Edlow shares his best bets for Game 3 between the Knicks and 76ers on Friday night.
The 76ers return home on Friday night in a 0-2 hole in the series, facing a desperation spot to avoid a 0-3 hole against the Knicks. Despite dropping both games at Madison Square Garden, Philly does have some potential things to build off of. A lot is being made of the spread in this game, which features the Knicks going from a double digit favorite in Game 2 to an underdog in Game 3. But we can justify the movement.
It obviously starts with home court, and changing venues from the top seed’s home floor to the lower seed’s arena is worth six to eight points — according to the line movement in the other three series’. When Joel Embiid was ruled out of Game 2, the line moved from 7.5 to 10.5. That tells us he is worth three points, and I think the line for Game 3 is anticipating his return. Then we have OG Anunoby’s potential absence with a hamstring injury, worth another one to two points on the Knicks’ side.
I’m buying into the desperation spot for the 76ers. Nick Nurse is 7-3 ATS when trailing in a playoff series with Philadelphia. Adjustments will be made, and the Sixers will be playing for their lives. Philly hung tough in Game 2, but came undone in the final minutes. At home, the Sixers get the job done on Friday. I’ll split my bet in half and play on the first half and full game moneyline.
NBA Pick: 76ers ML (-118)
NBA Pick: 76ers 1H ML (-135)
I am looking to New York’s side of the game for a player prop, though. Again, I’m operating under Anunoby being out for this game, and even if he plays, I’d expect him to be significantly limited. Deuce McBride has been the beneficiary out of the Knicks’ role players when Anunoby sits. When OG is active, McBride averages a solid 10.9 points in 24.6 minutes. But when OG sits, those numbers spike to 15.8 points in 32.5 minutes.
Looking into each game individually, McBride scored 11 or more in seven of the nine games he played without Anunoby this season (and the two unders landed on exactly nine points). Deuce also played 30 or more minutes against the Sixers one time during the regular season — a game that he went for 20 points.
While McBride has scored 11 or more points in just two of New York’s eight playoff games, there’s a clear pattern. All six times he has stayed under, he has played 21 or fewer minutes. When he played 23 minutes, he scored exactly 11 points. When he cleared 30 minutes, he scored 15 points. I’m expecting 30-plus minutes for Deuce in this one, which gives him a great opportunity to score at least 11 in the game.
NBA Pick: Miles McBride 11+ Points (-109)
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