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28 of the MLB teams are on the schedule this Friday night, with four divisional matchups and some nice interdivisional matchups between teams hoping to be in the playoff hunt. It’s a great night to swing for the fences with some home run props, so let’s take a look at the environments, matchups, and current trends to find a few juicy home run props to target on DraftKings Sportsbook this Friday night.
By their nature, home run props are long shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more unlikely to not homer than go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday: James Wood, Jo Adell and Michael Busch.
Wood has been on a power binge and is up to 10 homers on the season after homering in three straight contests. He ambushed the first MLB pitch from JR Ritchie.
Wood has an impressive 73.7% hard-hit rate and 42.1% barrel rate over his last eight games, with a .485 wOBA and .500 ISO. He’s smashing everything in sight, and the environment at Rate Field should be favorable with a brisk wind out to right-center and temperatures in the mid-60s.
The Nationals will be facing former-Nat Erick Fedde, who is 0-3 with a 3.92 ERA, 4.89 FIP and three homers allowed in his 20 2/3 innings. Fedde has allowed a 10% barrel rate against him this season, and Wood will look to stay locked in this Friday night in the Windy City.
The Angels are also on the road to start a weekend series, as they stop in Kansas City to take on lefty Noah Cameron. Adell has three homers in his first 26 games this season, all all three have come against southpaws like Cameron. His most recent blast was this grand slam against the Yankees:
On the season, Adell is hitting .269 with a 48.2% hard-hit rate, which is on par with his metrics from last year when he crushed a career-high 37 dingers.
Cameron has given up five homers in his four starts this year, with a 48.5% hard-hit rate and 15.2% barrel rate against him. If Cameron keeps giving up so much good contact, Adell and the Angels should be in a productive spot this Friday, since they’ve been having success against southpaws lately.
In one of the marquee matchups of the weekend, the red-hot Cubs roll into Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. The weather will be homer-friendly with the wind out and temps in the upper 60s, and the matchup will also be a favorable one for Cubs’ lefties against Emmett Sheehan. Sheehan has allowed 13 runs in 20 innings this season, including four homers. Lefties have hit all four of those homers, posting a .320 average and .462 wOBA against him in the splits.
Busch will look to continue that power from the left side against Sheehan after homering in each of his last two games against the Phillies. Before his last two games, he had zero homers and only two barrels with a 28.6% hard-hit rate, but he hit two barrels and a 42.9% hard-hit rate in his seven events in the last two games. Last year, he smashed 34 homers, so Cubs fans are thrilled to see him back to doing this:
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