Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Washington Nationals.
The Nationals (20-22) and Reds (22-20) stay at Great American Ball Park with Tuesday’s opener still smoking in the outfield seats. Washington’s 10-4 win was not a cheap pileup or one bad inning dressed up as a rout. James Wood started the barrage with his 12th homer, Luis García Jr. and Daylen Lile each left the yard twice, Brady House added another, and the Nationals kept pressing after Miles Mikolas forced their bullpen into the game earlier than planned. Cincinnati had its own chances, especially through Sal Stewart and JJ Bleday, but the Reds went 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position and then watched the bullpen turn a competitive game into a home-run reel. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Washington Nationals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Nick Lodolo makes this harder to price than a surface scan suggests. His first big-league start of the season was rough—6.75 ERA, 8.37 FIP, 3.38 HR/9, 35.3% ground-ball rate and only two strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings—but the arm still carries enough raw life that Washington cannot be treated like it is walking into a bullpen game from the first pitch. Jake Irvin gives Cincinnati a louder early opening. He brings a 5.22 ERA and 1.36 WHIP into a park that punishes missed locations, and the contact data is harsher than the ERA: 89.0 mph average exit velocity allowed, 45.6% hard-hit rate, .352 xwOBA and a 12.3% barrel rate. Those are dangerous numbers when Elly De La Cruz, Stewart and Bleday get multiple looks before the fifth inning is over.
Washington’s lineup has become more interesting because the danger is no longer confined to the two biggest names. Wood is still the central problem for Lodolo: 12 HR, seven steals, 18.1% walk rate, .294 ISO, .399 wOBA and 156 wRC+, with the kind of opposite-field power that makes Great American feel small without requiring him to sell out. CJ Abrams gives the Nationals another star-level plate appearance at nine HR, seven steals, .238 ISO, .400 wOBA and 157 wRC+, even if the left-on-left split is less pristine. The current lift comes from the rest of the order. García’s two-homer game matters because he is now hitting second and giving Washington a second early-count damage threat. Lile’s Louisville homecoming was more than cute copy; he turned around a 98 mph sinker for one of the louder swings of the night. House owns a .926 OPS against left-handed pitching and just punished the kind of hanging breaking ball Lodolo cannot afford to leave up. Losing Joey Wiemer and Curtis Mead from the official lineup trims some platoon thump, but the first six still have enough form, patience and slug to make Lodolo work.
Elly is the fulcrum: 10 HR, nine steals, .226 ISO, .382 wOBA and 140 wRC+, plus the switch-hitting violence to turn Irvin’s fastball mistakes into instant crooked-number pressure. Stewart has become the second grown-up at-bat in the middle, with 10 HR, eight steals, an 11.0% walk rate, 19.2% strikeout rate, .238 ISO and 125 wRC+. Bleday is the night’s swing piece after reaching twice and driving in two Tuesday; his small-sample line sits at .289/.429/.644 with a .356 ISO, .454 wOBA and 189 wRC+. That top half can absolutely cash Cincinnati’s first-five scoring case. The catch is the shape around it. Nathaniel Lowe sitting removes a clean righty-split power bat, Matt McLain and Ke’Bryan Hayes have not supplied enough current thump, and the lower half leans more volatile than bankable. Cincinnati can hurt Irvin, but it probably needs the Elly-Stewart-Bleday cluster to do the heavy lifting.
The full-game market is where Washington’s path separates. A straight over 9.5 has obvious appeal in this park, but the cleaner swing is isolating the lineup that just showed the deepest current damage and gets the night’s worst bullpen behind the opposing starter. Cincinnati’s relief group brings a 4.70 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 5.36 xERA, 4.93 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 5.92 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 42.3% fly-ball rate and an MLB-worst 11.1% barrel rate into Great American Ball Park. That is the value case. Washington does not need a perfect Lodolo fade to get there; Wood, García, House, Abrams and Lile can push him into stress, and the Reds’ middle innings are exactly where a three-run game can become five.
The best bet is Nationals team total over 4.5 (+120). The 3.5 is safer, but +120 is the number that actually matches the handicap: a hot, increasingly layered Nationals offense against a starter making his second major-league appearance off the blister issue and a bullpen built out of walks, barrels and fly balls. The way it loses is Lodolo’s stuff settling in early while Washington’s thinner official lineup strands traffic without the extra-base hit, but Tuesday’s swing quality and Cincinnati’s relief profile still make five Nationals runs the better value ask.
Pick: Nationals team total over 4.5 (+120). Final score projection: Nationals 6, Reds 5.
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