Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Bryce Harper, Kyle Stowers and Rafael Devers.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s 15-game slate: Bryce Harper, Kyle Stowers and Rafael Devers.
Let’s break them down.
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | +343 | After surrendering four in his last outing, Zack Littell is one of three pitchers this season with at least 20 home runs allowed. If you go back to the beginning of 2025, the right-hander is the lone pitcher in MLB to serve up at least 50 long balls to opponents. Specific to 2026, LHBs have combined to hit 3.82 dingers per nine off Littell with a jaw-dropping .652 slugging percentage. |
| Kyle Stowers | +408 | Stowers’ red flag in 2026 has been his inability to make consistent contact, as evidenced by a fourth percentile whiff rate (35.2%) and a 10th percentile strikeout rate (30.3%). However, when he does put bat on ball, he’s still achieving eye-popping results like a 93rd percentile hard hit rate (51.9%). Cal Quantrill isn’t a strikeout pitcher. Stowers should challenge for his fourth home run in six games. |
| Rafael Devers | +430 | This is all about a prime matchup with Aaron Civale on Tuesday. Here’s how the journeyman right-hander’s past four starts have gone: Eight long balls and 20 earned runs allowed in just 17.0 innings of work. LHBs have been Civale’s biggest kryptonite in 2026, as those within the split are slashing .326/.391/.574 with a .415 wOBA. Devers can make amends with a long ball. |
In-depth analysis below.
You know the drill. While Harper is my official pick, everything I say in this space is also an endorsement of Kyle Schwarber (+166) hitting a home run on Tuesday evening — it’s just really hard to back someone at those short odds. I can’t say I don’t understand the book’s process, though. Zack Littell is the king of giving up long balls. In fact, after surrendering four in his last outing, Littell is one of three pitchers this season with at least 20 home runs allowed. If you go back to the beginning of 2025, the right-hander is the lone pitcher in MLB to serve up at least 50 homers to opponents, and he’s actually closing in on the 60 home run plateau. Specific to 2026, Littell’s big weakness has been left-handed opponents, which is what makes this matchup so perfect for both Harper and Schwarber. LHBs have combined to hit 3.82 dingers per nine off Littell with a jaw-dropping .652 slugging percentage. Any lefty on the Phillies’ roster should be salivating.
Stowers isn’t quite living up to the hype of his breakout 2025 campaign at the moment, but tonight’s matchup with Cal Quantrill might be the ideal scenario to thrive. It’s simple really. Stowers’ largest red flag in 2026 has been his inability to make consistent contact. That’s evidenced by a fourth percentile whiff rate (35.2%) and a 10th percentile strikeout rate (30.3%). However, when he does put bat on ball, he’s still achieving eye-popping results like a 93rd percentile hard hit rate (51.9%). Well, Quantrill’s about the furthest thing we have from a “strikeout artist” in MLB. Even when working out of the bullpen for the Rangers earlier this season, the former first-round pick could only muster a 15.2% strikeout rate. Stowers is surely going to produce some batted ball events on Tuesday against the RHP, and that could mean his fourth long ball in his past six games.
You know who could really use a home run? Rafael Devers. Honestly, Devers’ PR department could use it even more. It’s been a rough season for the $300 million man, and things did not improve when Devers was unwilling to remove himself from the game for a pinch-runner in Sunday’s loss to Miami. That said, none of that matters now. This is all about a prime matchup with Aaron Civale on Tuesday. Here’s how the journeyman right-hander’s past four starts have gone: Eight long balls and 20 earned runs allowed in just 17.0 innings of work. Woof. This isn’t small sample nonsense, either. Civale in an extreme fly ball archetype that has long struggled to keep the ball in the yard, and as you might expect, LHBs have been his biggest kryptonite in 2026, as those within the split are slashing .326/.391/.574 with a .415 wOBA. For as underwhelming as Devers has been in a Giants uniform, he’s still in possession of an 89th percentile hard hit rate (50.2%). He can take advantage.
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