How about a little Paul Skenes matinee for Saturday? The Pittsburgh ace steps to the mound on Saturday afternoon, looking to add another win for the surprisingly solid Pirates. Will Patrick Corbin and the Toronto Blue Jays be able to spoil the party?

First pitch is set for 3:07 p.m. ET. The Pirates are -149 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while a Blue Jays upset is priced at +123. The game total is set at O/U 7.5 runs.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Pirates vs. Blue Jays game.

Pirates vs. Blue Jays Preview

First things first, let’s get to know these starting pitchers.

Paul Skenes hardly needs an introduction. Last year, the Cy Young winner was worth 42 pitching runs according to Baseball Savant, the highest mark amongst all starting pitchers. This year, he’s been worth 16 pitching runs, a 99th percentile mark. I suppose he’s regressing.

Skenes is known for his electric fastball and hardcore breaking stuff. It’s notable that he’s dropped the slider from his arsenal, placing more focus on his sweeper. The curveball has been all but dropped from his arsenal as well, placing more emphasis on his changeup. As if the fastball wasn’t deadly enough. The results speak for themselves.

Opposite him is Patrick Corbin. Banners fly forever, and Nationals fans sure won’t forget his contributions to their World Series-winning team in 2019. But Corbin has been a punching bag for the entire 2020s.

Things are no different this year. Corbin, 36, is sporting a 4.23 ERA. It’s not that bad on the surface, but when you look under the hood, you see a real lemon. The lefty sports a .310 expected batting average, according to Baseball Savant; he gives up a lot of hard contact, and it’s almost always in the air rather than on the ground. No wonder his 6.41 expected ERA is more than two runs above his actual ERA. It feels strange to say Corbin is due for negative regression, but here we are.

It’s a real shock to see Pittsburgh’s offense outperforming the Jays as we approach the 1/3-mark of the season. Big performances from Brandon Lowe have boosted the depth and quality of this Pittsburgh lineup, giving significant run support to their electric starting pitching. Toronto, meanwhile, has faltered; they sit 25th in wRC+ as their power has completely disappeared. Somehow, the departure of Bo Bichette has made them even more reliant on contact and averse to power. It’s something they’ll have to address this season, or they’ll be in danger of missing the playoffs a year after winning the American League pennant.

Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to take this one home?

Pirates vs. Blue Jays Pick, Best Bet

Not only is the Pittsburgh offense outperforming Toronto’s by a significant margin, but they have a gigantic upper hand on the mound. Skenes has put up 7+ shutout innings in three of his last five outings, and I expect more of the same here. Pittsburgh will capitalize on Corbin’s struggles, delivering the run support needed for the reigning NL Cy Young winner to coast to victory.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates Run Line -1.5 (+119)