The teams in last season’s WNBA Finals had pretty differing offseasons. The Las Vegas Aces, who won the title by sweeping the Phoenix Mercury in four games, retained their core while adding Chennedy Carter, and they’re 2-1 so far. The Phoenix Mercury are 1-2, having lost three key rotation players: Satou Sabally signed with the New York Liberty, Sami Whitcomb is out after knee surgery, and Monique Akoa Makani is still dealing with an overseas commitment.

The Mercury will try to climb back to .500 tonight at 10 p.m. ET, when they host the Chicago Sky, one of the WNBA’s worst teams in 2025 but one that has improved dramatically so far in 2026.

Phoenix is a 3.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 Moneyline), with the total set at 166.5 points. The Sky are +145 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this astronomy-themed matchup and offer a prediction.

Sky at Mercury prediction, pick

The Mercury haven’t missed Sabally offensively so far, as they rank third in offensive rating, but they have languished near the middle of the pack in defensive rating. They have a pretty well-balanced squad, with five different players averaging at least 10 points per game, including Alyssa Thomas, who, for the second consecutive season, also leads the league in assists per game (9.3). However, it’s hard to predict how much of Phoenix’s offensive success is sustainable in the long run, given that it currently rosters five rookies and a player who hasn’t played in the WNBA in more than a decade (Valeriane Ayayi). Similarly, Chicago has undergone a lot of change as well: it traded center Angel Reese and released 2025 first-round pick Hailey Van Lith while bringing in veterans Rickea Jackson, Skylar Diggins, and Natasha Cloud, with Diggins enjoying an especially strong start to the season. Additionally, the Sky drafted Gabriela Jaquez with the fifth overall pick. They’re 2-0 after beating the Portland Fire and the Golden State Valkyries, and they have the ninth-best offense and the second-best defense.

So far this season, both teams have done an excellent job at deterring opponents from driving, allowing the second- and third-fewest tries within the restricted area, respectively. That’s a massive step forward for Chicago, which ranked dead last in defensive rating and fifth-to-last in opponent shots per game within five feet last season with Reese patrolling the middle. Just like last season, the Sky have been good at protecting the paint, but they’ve been even better so far (albeit in a two-game sample size). The Mercury have allowed the fifth-highest percentage in the restricted area so far, but they were slightly better at defending such shots last season, so they could be due for some improvement, given that their rim-protecting core hasn’t changed. Chicago has also attempted the most shots in the restricted area, mostly thanks to Kamilla Cardoso, who leads the league with 11.5 close-range tries per game, and Phoenix hasn’t done a very good job getting downhill, either in 2025 or 2026.

Reese’s departure hasn’t hurt the Sky on the glass. Despite her being arguably the most dominant individual rebounder in league history, Chicago has actually been better so far this season, snagging 55.5% of all available boards, and the Mercury have been awful at rebounding, ranking second-to-last in rebounding percentage through their first three games. That could be sustainable; they weren’t very good at that in 2025 either, and Sabally — who’s averaged 6.7 rebounds per game in her career and stands six-foot-four — is a big loss. Phoenix has been better in transition both this season and last season, but now Diggins, who was the driver behind the Seattle Storm’s elite transition defense last season, is the Sky’s primary ball handler and Cloud their primary perimeter stopper, I so their solid ball protection should continue. Neither team has a particularly significant advantage in terms of drawing contact, but getting rid of Reese, who led the league in fouls per game last season, can’t hurt.

Three-point shooting could swing the game. The Mercury probably still have a three-point shooting advantage over Chicago, which finished fourth-to-last in made threes per game and fifth-to-last in three-point percentage last season, but without Whitcomb and Akoa Makani, who each shot at least 36% from deep last season, that edge might have narrowed. If anything, the Sky are more due to benefit from shooting variability normalization than Phoenix is, given that the Mercury have shot a league-best 41.3% from deep this season and have six different players who have made more than half of their threes, though that’s a tiny sample size. Jackson shot 34.8% from deep last year and is just two-for-nine (22.2%) so far this season.

It’s hard to pick a team that went went just 10-34 last season against a team that was just in the WNBA Finals, but each of Chicago’s moves this offseason make sense, and Phoenix loses a lot without Sabally, Whitcomb, and Akoa Makani. The Sky have had a pretty easy schedule to start the season, opening up against the expansion Fire, but the Valkyries are a playoff team and handed the Mercury a lopsided loss.

Best Bet: Chicago Sky Moneyline (+145)