Dan Johnson shares his top player prop bets for today’s MLB slate, including home run, HRRs, and more.
Monday’s MLB player prop board has the right kind of June noise. A young star is sprinting into his power. A veteran is stalking the correct handedness. A patient bat is catching a wounded starter. Two run environments can turn ordinary traffic into damage.
The strongest angles come from hitters whose form has a cause attached: barrels, walks, lineup trust, park lift, or pitchers bleeding hard contact. Total bases and HRR both reward pressure. This card attacks hot hitters whose streaks I like to continue, and who can cash through one violent swing, one gap shot, or one messy inning.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ total bases | +105 | Crow-Armstrong 2+ total bases rides a 16-for-29, five-HR, .552/.588/1.207 seven-game eruption, a 28-for-62, eight-HR, six-SB last-15 surge, a 91.8 mph average exit velocity, 51.9% hard-hit rate, and 11.2% barrel rate into a Senga matchup defined by a 9.00 ERA, 6.15 FIP, 20 uneven innings, and a post-IL search for command. |
| Seiya Suzuki 2+ total bases | +150 | Suzuki 2+ total bases gets the quieter Cubs misprice, with an 11-for-25, six-walk, .548-OBP last-seven stretch, a 19-for-51, three-HR, .647-SLG last-15 run, a .405 wOBA, .370 expected wOBA, 46.4% hard-hit rate, and enough strike-zone control to punish Senga’s current 9.00 ERA turbulence. |
| Jake Bauers 3+ HRR | +135 | Bauers 3+ HRR turns on a strange but useful blend: 13 HR, 46 RBI, .373 OBP, .496 SLG, .869 OPS, seven HR, 25 RBI, and 19 walks over his last 30, with Singer bringing a 5.32 ERA and 6.15 FIP into Great American Ball Park against a Cincinnati bullpen carrying a 4.81 ERA. |
| Paul Goldschmidt 2+ total bases | +115 | Goldschmidt 2+ total bases is the cleanest old-man platoon violence on the slate, with 27 hits, five doubles, one triple, six HR, 52 total bases, and a .754 SLG against lefties meeting Valdez’s 4.09 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 90.0 mph average exit velocity allowed, 42.3% hard-hit rate, and .328 expected wOBA allowed. |
| Hunter Goodman 3+ HRR | +110 | Goodman 3+ HRR brings Coors a universal batted-ball profile, with 21 HR, an .834 OPS, three HR and a .692 SLG over seven, 10 HR and 20 RBI over 30, a 16.3% barrel rate, and warm Denver air around a Bennett-Feltner pitching setup carrying 4.79 and 5.05 ERAs. |
In-depth analysis below.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has turned a hot streak into an historically-searing supernova. Over his last seven games, he is 16-for-29 with five homers, eight RBI, four walks, three steals, a .552 average, .588 OBP, and 1.207 slugging percentage. His last 15 games stretch the same idea across a larger sample: 28-for-62, eight homers, 13 runs, 12 RBI, six steals, and a .968 slugging percentage. Across his last 30, he has 43 hits, 11 homers, 22 runs, 20 RBI, 13 walks, and a .731 slugging percentage.
The matchup gives the play its edge. Kodai Senga returned from lumbar spine inflammation after nearly two months away, and his major-league line remains shaky: 9.00 ERA, 6.15 FIP, and 20 innings. Senga’s old weaponry can still embarrass hitters, but this version is searching for rhythm. Crow-Armstrong is punishing that kind of uncertainty. The 2+ total bases market fits his current game perfectly. A homer cashes it instantly. A double cashes. A triple is always in play with his speed. Two singles can still get there because every ball he puts in play feels hurried by his legs.
Seiya Suzuki gives this slate its best price-to-approach blend. Over his last seven games, he is 11-for-25 with five runs, five RBI, six walks, a .440 average, .548 OBP, and .640 slugging percentage. The last 15-game window keeps the same shape: 19-for-51, three homers, 10 runs, 12 RBI, nine walks, and a .647 slugging percentage. That walk total is the tell. Suzuki is not riding a blind contact heater. He is taking serious at-bats, controlling counts, and forcing pitchers to challenge him.
That skill set plays well against Senga’s current volatility. Senga has been away, then back, then forced to prove the command is whole again. His season ERA and FIP both reflect the same problem: too many stressful pitches, too many innings without clean finish. Suzuki’s price is still sitting at +152 for 2+ total bases, which gives a strong hitter a generous return for one double, one homer, or two clean swings. Crow-Armstrong brings the louder electricity in the same matchup. Suzuki brings calmer decision-making and a better number. That combination deserves attention.
Jake Bauers is the uncomfortable inclusion, which often makes him the right one. His last week is quiet, but the full-season profile gives this number more substance. Bauers leads Milwaukee with 13 homers, ranks 10th in the NL with a .373 OBP, sits 18th with a .496 slugging percentage, and ranks 14th with an .869 OPS. He also has 46 RBI, which puts him 13th in the league. That gives him enough power, patience, and lineup production to attack a 3+ hits, runs, and RBI ladder.
The context is doing plenty of work. Milwaukee opens a division-heavy stretch with 18 of its next 21 games against NL Central opponents. The Brewers also just scored nine runs Sunday after dropping two one-run games in Atlanta. That kind of release can matter for a lineup built around pressure. Cincinnati starts Brady Singer, who enters 3-6 with a 5.32 ERA and 6.15 FIP across 66 innings. The Reds also carry a 4.58 staff ERA and a 4.81 bullpen ERA. Great American Ball Park turns ordinary traffic into trouble fast. Bauers can cash this with a walk, run, and RBI. He can also finish it with one swing.
Paul Goldschmidt gets the sort of matchup that still makes him look timeless. The Yankees are missing Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Trent Grisham, so his at-bats carry more responsibility than usual. Goldschmidt has handled that kind of assignment for a long time, and left-handed pitching remains his cleanest hunting ground. He owns 12 homers, 37 RBI, and an .896 OPS overall. Against lefties, the split becomes vicious: 27 hits in 69 at-bats, five doubles, one triple, six homers, and 52 total bases.
Framber Valdez brings name value, but his current contact profile gives Goldschmidt a clear path. Valdez enters 3-5 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts over 83 2/3 innings. He has also allowed a 90.0 mph average exit velocity, 42.3% hard-hit rate, .328 expected wOBA, and 7.0% barrel rate. His sinker can still create grounders, but too many balls are leaving the bat with authority. Goldschmidt does not need the whole Yankees lineup to erupt. One double, two singles, or one lifted mistake can cash this price.
Hunter Goodman brings real thunder into the best run environment on the slate. He has 21 homers, 39 RBI, and an .834 OPS, with a 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 45.4% hard-hit rate, and 16.3% barrel rate. The volatility is part of the profile, but the damage is always popping. Over his last seven games, he has three homers, six RBI, five runs, and a .692 slugging percentage. Across his last 30, he has 10 homers, 19 runs, 20 RBI, four steals, and a .536 slugging percentage.
Coors Field widens every path for this market. Boston starts Jake Bennett, who enters 1-3 with a 4.79 ERA and 13 strikeouts. Colorado counters with Ryan Feltner at 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA and 33 strikeouts, which keeps run pressure on both dugouts. Denver should sit around 86 degrees near first pitch, with the ball carrying in warm air. Goodman also has a genuine role on a thin Rockies roster. Colorado needs his power in the middle of its offense. At +108, 3+ hits, runs, and RBI gives him enough routes through power, traffic, and park-aided chaos.
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