Ancient rivals are set to meet on Saturday in St. Louis. The Cubs (31-27) are sliding, having lost 11 of their last 13 games. Chicago needs all the wins it can get to keep pace in the loaded NL Central. On the other side, the Cardinals (30-25) have surpassed all expectations this season. Will they clinch a series victory this evening?

The Cubs are favorites (-136) over the Cardinals, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cubs vs. Cardinals prediction, preview

For all their recent struggles, the Cubs have reason to be hopeful tonight. That’s due to the presence of Saturday’s starter, Ben Brown. Through 44.2 innings of work this season, the right-hander has posted a 2.01 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 47 strikeouts (9.5 K/9). Chicago has kept the 26-year-old’s workload fairly limited, rarely stretching him out more than four frames. Still, he comes into this one fresh off of a six-inning, one-run performance in Pittsburgh. Per Savant, Brown ranks inside the top 80th percentile in xERA (2.88), whiff rate (29.3%) and ground ball rate (53.4%).

St. Louis, for all its recent success, hasn’t exactly been lighting it up at the plate. Over their last ten games, the team has only managed to score 33 runs. That’s tied with none other than the Cubs for the eighth-lowest mark in baseball during that stretch. Still, what holds this lineup back is depth. That means there’s a handful of Cardinals hitters that could do some damage tonight. It all starts with Jordan Walker, in the midst of a career year. Through 54 games, the outfielder is slashing .296/.365/.568 with 15 homers. He’s joined by Ivan Herrera (138 wRC+). Alec Burleson (122 wRC+) and JJ Wetherholt (116 wRC+). However, no other St. Louis regular has notched a wRC+ above 100 this season.

For the home team, it’ll be Kyle Leahy on the bump tonight. Much like the rest of this Cardinals rotation, the 28-year-old isn’t exactly a household name. Still, he’s been a decent innings eater so far for St. Louis. In ten outings, he’s accounted for a 4.44 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 42 strikeouts ( K/9). None of those numbers are particularly impressive, but the righty does perform better at Busch Stadium (3.54 ERA). He’s also done well previously in this matchup. Leahy owns a 3.55 ERA during nine appearances vs. the Cubs. However, he’s never thrown over 3.0 innings against Chicago.

Unlike Brown, nothing on Leahy’s Savant page suggests long-term success. He’s inside the bottom fifth percentile among all starters in xERA (6.33), xBA (.300), average exit velocity (92.1) and hard-hit rate (50.3%). Even if manager Oli Marmol pulls the righty early, Cardinals relievers don’t inspire much confidence. St. Louis’ bullpen has posted a 4.27 ERA, fourth-worst in the National League.

Granted, Chicago has looked like a mess at the plate for most of May. Regardless, the North Siders should take advantage of Leahy’s pitch mix tonight. The righty has thrown a regular fastball on nearly one-third of his pitches (32%). Against four-seamers thrown at 92 MPH or slower, the Cubs have posted a team-wide .282/.407/.423 slash line this season.

Cubs vs. Cardinals pick, best bet

A quick glance at the numbers makes it obvious that Chicago holds a pitching advantage in this one. Even if Brown isn’t at his best, it’s far more likely Leahy struggles tonight. The Cubs, despite their recent slump, also have a greater collection of hitting talent. A soft-tossing righty could help this group get back on track. Expect the visitors to even up this series.

Best Bet: Cubs ML (-136)