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All season long, it seemed as if the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder were tracking towards a collision course in the Western Conference Finals. The first round has done nothing to change that perception; last night, the Thunder became the first team to officially punch their tickets to the second round, and tonight, the Spurs could join them.
After a comeback win in Game 4, San Antonio will have the chance to close out the Portland Trail Blazers in tonight’s Game 5. The contest will begin at 9:40 p.m. ET at the Frost Bank Center.
The Spurs are 11.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-600 on the Moneyline) to win tonight’s contest, with the point total set to 216.5. The Trail Blazers are +440 on the Moneyline.
There are lots of ways to get involved in the action at DraftKings Sportsbook, but in honor of the playoffs, DraftKings is running a 30% Same-Game Parlay Profit Boost on SGP’s of at least four legs with at least +300 odds, as long as it is placed before the start of the Boston Celtics-Philadelphia 76ers game at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below, I’ve laid out my favorite qualifying SGP for you to consider.
This leg supposes that Victor Wembanyama will be healthy enough to play at his full strength for the entire game, as he had a pretty awful first half in his return in Game 4 (nine points on four-for-12 shooting) and turned it up in the second half. In the second half of Game 4, San Antonio out-scored Portland, 73-35, and Wembanyama had 18 points on perfect shooting to go along with five rebounds, three steals, and five blocks. There are elements of luck to that second-half performance — the Trail Blazers are unlikely to shoot two-for-seven on wide-open threes again — but Wembanyama has been so dominant this series that it’d be disappointing for the Spurs not to cover with him at full strength. He’s effectively played Donovan Clingan out of the series, leaving Portland without its most impactful defender (by points saved per 100 possessions).
With or without Wembanyama manning the middle, the Trail Blazers’ Plan A remains the same: get downhill. They have one of the league’s most frequent slashers in Deni Avdija, who led the league in drives during the regular season and has driven even more frequently so far in the playoffs. As a result, Portland ranked fourth in shot attempts within five feet during the regular season, and Wembanyama hasn’t been too much of a deterrent; it’s attempted the seventh-most shots within that range so far these playoffs. As the Trail Blazers continue to challenge the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, he should keep racking up stats. His seven-block Game 3 wasn’t his first blocking spree against Portland; in 2024-25, he tied his career-high with a 10-block performance.
Holiday has been the Trail Blazers’ most important player so far the series, since he’s the only member of the team’s rotation with significant recent playoff experience. He put together a pair of extremely strong performances in Games 3 and 4, scoring 29 points in Game 3 and adding 20 more in Game 4, and unlike Avdija and Clingan, his game isn’t heavily reliant on the drives that Wembanyama will surely snuff out. Unlike Avdija, he doesn’t have an All-Defensive candidate guarding him; while Avdija has had to work against Stephon Castle, Holiday has benefited from matchups against Devin Vassell (ninth percentile in total contests per 100 possessions) and De’Aaron Fox (51st).
At -164, this is the relatively safe leg of the bunch. While Camara — and the team as a whole — isn’t elite at distance shooting, he combines high volume with enough efficiency to rack up counting stats. He ended the regular season on a hot streak, connecting at a 48.9% rate across his last 11 games, and so far this series, he’s made at least two three-pointers in three of the four games despite only shooting 30.0% from deep overall. In general, San Antonio is happy to let opponents shoot, allowing the ninth-most wide-open threes per game during the regular season and the fifth-most so far these playoffs. The Spurs have especially ignored Camara this series, allowing him to attempt four wide-open threes per game, and he’s connected at basically the same clip as he did during the regular season (38.6%).
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