The Philadelphia 76ers have fallen into a 3-0 series hole, and the New York Knicks are one win away from going to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive season. No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit. It is worth acknowledging that this is the same Sixers team that battled back from a 3-1 series deficit in the opening round against the Boston Celtics, but they have not shown the necessary level of fight for a consistent stretch in this second round. 

Looking at the Game 4 odds, the Knicks are narrow -1.5-point favorites and hold -120 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The 76ers hold +100 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 214.5 points.

76ers vs. Knicks preview

The 76ers were largely one of the more mysterious teams for most of the season. You could squint and see the vision of how this team is designed on paper, but there has not been a consistent sample size of on-court play across the past two seasons since Paul George was officially signed. Joel Embiid continued to battle injury issues all year, George was suspended for 25 games, and Tyrese Maxey missed three weeks near the end of the season with a finger injury that is still proving bothersome to him. Ultimately, the Sixers finished as the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference with a 43-37 overall record. Philadelphia defeated the Orlando Magic in the opening play-in game to earn the opening round matchup with the Celtics, which it won in seven games and became the 14th team in NBA history to complete a 3-1 series comeback. On the season, the Sixers have gone 50-43 against the spread, and the game total is 43-50 to the over/under.

Joel Embiid is officially listed as probable with right hip soreness. The Sixers star made his return for the Celtics series 17 days following his emergency appendectomy surgery to play the final four games against Boston. Embiid missed Game 2 of this Knicks series and returned to the last matchup. However, his movement ability has slipped a bit since he first returned, and New York has punished him for this. Tyrese Maxey is the only other player listed on the injury report and is considered available with his lingering finger injury.

Maxey has stepped up as the leader of the franchise as Embiid’s injuries have been increasingly bothersome. He earned his second career All-Star appearance this season with averages of 28.3 points, 6.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds while leading the NBA in minutes. V.J Edgecombe has shown to be an ideal backcourt mate, adding 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists across his rookie season. Paul George had his season derailed by a 25-game suspension, but the nine-time All-Star has played the best basketball of his Sixers tenure since returning. He posted averages of 21.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.2 steals and shot 41.5% from beyond the three-point arc across this 10-game stretch. Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond, Adem Bona and Quentin Grimes also play key roles in the rotation.

Philadelphia averaged 115.9 points per game across the regular season, which ranks 14th in the NBA. The Sixers also rank 17th in offensive rating, 23rd in field-goal percentage and 23rd in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.1 points per game against the 76ers, which ranks 19th in the league. Nick Nurse’s squad also ranks 16th in defensive rating, 12th in opponent field-goal percentage and 10th in opponent three-point percentage.

Despite not holding a firm place in the championship conversation for most of the season, all of New York’s postseason aspirations are still in play, and it has looked the part of a title threat for most of the postseason. There were some significant ups and downs across the regular season, but New York made it clear the championship expectations it holds with the decision to move on from Tom Thibodeau and bring in Mike Brown in the offseason. The Knicks finished in third place in the Eastern Conference with a 53-29 record on the year. They cruised past the Atlanta Hawks in six games in the opening round. On the season, New York has gone 50-42 against the spread, and the game total is 42-50 to the over/under.

OG Anunoby is listed as questionable for the Game 4 matchup due to a hamstring strain. Anunoby was listed as questionable leading up to Game 3 after tweaking the issue in the second matchup, but ultimately he was unable to give it go. Given the 3-0 series advantage, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Anunoby is held out of today’s matchup, especially with his past hamstring issues in mind.

Even while the surrounding roster has been upgraded, Jalen Brunson remains the heart of the Knicks’ attack. The Villanova product posted averages of 26.0 points, 6.8 assists and 3.3 rebounds across the regular season, and he has had some of his best moments when the lights have been the brightest. Karl-Anthony Towns provides balance in their attack, adding 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart are the glue of this team, and each has had some impressive flashes in this series. This is the deepest Knicks roster of the Brunson era, with players like Mitchell Robinson, Jordan Clarkson, Miles McBride and Jose Alvarado each capable of putting their fingerprints on this series.

As a team, the Knicks averaged 116.5 points per game, which ranked 10th in the NBA across the regular season. They also ranked third in offensive rating, 11th in field-goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 110.1 points per game against New York, which ranks fifth in the league. Mike Brown’s squad also ranks fifth in opponent field-goal percentage and 20th in opponent three-point percentage.

Series Takeaways:

The fatigue on this Sixers roster was clear in Game 1, as the Knicks cruised to a blowout 137-98 win. The Knicks extended the lead to as many as 40 and led for 91% of the match. New York shot an impressive 63% from the floor and 51% from beyond the three-point arc, with the game never in much doubt after the first quarter.

It was a different story in Game 2, as the Sixers pushed the Knicks to the brink before running out of gas to fall short. The final score finished 108-102 in the Knicks’ favor, with the 12 points scored in the fourth quarter ultimately sinking the Sixers. Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, V.J. Edgecombe and Kelly Oubre Jr. each clocked 40+ minutes, with the lack of depth on the Sixers’ roster clear. Maxey, Edgecombe and George each rank in the top five in total minutes played across the postseason.

Across the Game 1 matchup, it was clear the Knicks were abusing Embiid in drop coverage. The Sixers star was more limited in his movement than has been the case since he returned from his injury, and the Knicks made it a priority to attack him. The defensive scheme was much different in Game 2 without the big man on the floor. Philadelphia had more success keeping Jalen Brunson in check, but it lacked enough offense and energy down the stretch.

While Embiid deserves credit for continuing to battle and fight to be on the floor, his movement issues were evident when he returned for Game 3 once again. Despite the series returning to Philadelphia, the Sixers were still unable to get a positive result and lost 108-94. The difference in depth on these two rosters was evident, as Landry Shamet exploded for 15 points off the bench to help swing the game for the Knicks, while no member of the 76ers roster registered a point off the bench through the first three quarters.

The top-end talent of this Sixers roster is capable of going toe-to-toe with the Knicks, but the depth advantage has become an increasingly large hurdle to clear for Philadelphia. This is especially the case with Maxey, Edgecombe and George each ranking in the top five in total minutes played across the postseason and fatigue setting in. It has been further magnified with Maxey’s finger injury continuing to linger, and Embiid is back to looking like a minimized version of himself physically.

76ers vs. Knicks Game 4 prediction, pick

The effort level for Philadelphia will be interesting to note in the matchup. On one hand, the Sixers have proven to be a resilient squad all season, and this was put on display during the comeback in the opening series. However, it looks pretty clear that they are running out of gas in the tank. Both Embiid and Maxey seem bothered by their lingering injuries, and the Knicks have a massive depth advantage, which makes it difficult for the 76ers to find a path to a win. With this said, it is tough to beat a team four times in a row in the NBA, and one would imagine a level of pride will kick in for Philadelphia on its home floor. 

Rather than back a side, I am backing the game total to remain under the 214.5-point line. After the game total went over in the opening game, the under has cashed in back-to-back matchups. Finding consistent offense has been an issue for this Sixers team, as they have finished with scoring totals of 98, 102 and 94 across the opening three games. They do not have the life in their legs or the number of reliable bodies to play at an up-tempo pace for extended stretches and are content making this a half-court matchup.

New York has used this to its advantage as well, making a clear effort to put Embiid in as many actions as possible and capitalize on his lack of mobility. While this has largely made for an effective offense, it slows the pace of play. New York has had more success scoring the basketball overall, but it has been held to 108 points in back-to-back games after an offensive outpouring in Game 1.

Expect the level of desperation to be felt from this Sixers team on the defensive end tonight. They do not have enough consistent offense to go score-for-score with New York, and the only path for Philadelphia to have a chance to get a win is by doing the work with its defense. This still doesn’t solve its offensive issues, and there is a world where the Sixers cannot find any source of offense to a level that paves the way to the under comfortably being in play. Count on the weight of the 3-0 deficit to bring out the best possible defensive effort by the 76ers and for the game total to remain under for the third straight game.

Best Bet: Game Total Under 214.5 (-108)