One of the NBA’s most intense rivalries is set to add another chapter on Saturday night. A dominant Game 3 win gave the Timberwolves a 2-1 series lead over the Nuggets earlier this week. Now, Minnesota will attempt to earn a commanding 3-1 advantage over their Northwest Division foes. However, Denver and superstar Nikola Jokic should come out with more intensity in this one.

The Nuggets are 1.5-point favorites (-112) over the Timberwolves on DraftKings Sportsbook. Denver is favored at -122 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at 229.5 points. Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves postseason matchup.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves prediction, preview

The Timberwolves dominated all 48 minutes on Thursday, earning a 17-point win. In many ways, the game wasn’t even that close. Everyone on the Nuggets seemed to struggle, including Nikola Jokic. The three-time MVP didn’t look like himself, notching 27 points, 15 rebounds and three assists while shooting just 27% from the field. Boards aside, it’s not the kind of production fans have grown accustomed to seeing from the future Hall of Famer. As a unit, Denver only shot 34% from the field and 25% from three-point range. Granted, scoring is never easy against a tenacious Minnesota defense.

With respect to the Timberwolves, a better offensive showing feels inevitable for Denver. Keep in mind, this was basketball’s highest rated offense during the regular season (122.6). Jokic aside, there are more than enough weapons that can do damage in this matchup. Co-star Jamal Muray, always a big-game performer, has done well in this series. So far, he’s averaging 25.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists this postseason, although he’s only shooting 36% from the field. Although it doesn’t mean a ton, the Nuggets did win three of the four meetings between these clubs during the regular season.

With all that being said, Minnesota is a bad matchup for Denver on a number of levels. For starters, they have the necessary size to at least contain Jokic. Four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert is an elite rim protector, while former Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid plays solid defense as well. Even the team’s stars, Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, hustle on that end of the floor. Wing Jaden McDaniels, who has made headlines during this series, has frustrated Murray on the perimeter. If there’s one weakness for the Timberwolves, they’ve allowed the 11th-most rebounds per game (53.5) to opponents. Jokic has snagged double-digit boards in eight of his last ten meetings with Minnesota.

One area where the Timberwolves have outperformed the Nuggets is from beyond the arc. That’s due in large part to Donte DiVincenzo, who has knocked down at least three treys in every game of this series. That’s without mentioning the dynamic Edwards, who hasn’t even been at his best this postseason. The guard is averaging 23.0 points per game on 39% shooting; don’t expect that to continue. It’s also worth noting that the status of Aaron Gordon (calf) is questionable heading into this one. Denver is a much different team without its underrated two-way forward. The veteran, who sat out on Thursday, is questionable for Game 4. Gordon’s teammate Peyton Watson (hamstring), another stellar defender, is listed as out.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves pick, best bet

If both sides were fully healthy, the edge might go to Denver. After all, this Nuggets group feels too talented to drop three straight against anyone. However, it’s clear that the Timberwolves are a difficult matchup for this group in terms of personnel. Factor in another potential absence for Gordon, and the visitors could be in trouble. Expect a motivated Minnesota squad to defend home court on Saturday.

Best Bet: Timberwolves ML (+102)