Garion Thorne gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Tampa Bay Rays.
I know that it always feels like the Rays aren’t necessarily trying to win games, but 2026 seemed like even more of a “gap year” than usual for the franchise. However, if we’ve all learned anything across the past two decades, it’s to never count this team out. Tampa’s won five in a row entering play on Tuesday, and it sits just 1.5 games back of New York in the AL East. It’s just what the Rays do.
Can Tampa make it six in a row this evening? Or can the Guardians defend their home field? Let’s preview this tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nick Martinez is coming off an amazing start against the Reds, tossing eight innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts and just five hits allowed. It was Martinez’s fifth outing of the season, and the fifth time he’s allowed two earned runs of fewer in an appearance. That’s how you go about maintaining a 2.10 ERA. That said, there’s some red flags when you check under the hood. Not only are a .242 opponent BABIP and a 90.3% strand rate unsustainable, but they’re especially so with a 10th percentile whiff rate (17.5%). The 35-year-old just isn’t missing many bats, and at some point, I’d expect his actual ERA to more closely resemble his 4.65 xERA.
Whether or not that regression starts to take place against the Guardians is another matter. Cleveland has enjoyed modest offensive success so far in 2026, but things have cooled significantly in recent games, as the team has dropped four of its last five — a span where its averaging 3.0 runs per contest. Jose Ramirez’s .400 expected wOBA is a career-high, yet the All-Star has been a little unlucky, and is only batting .229 on the year. Steven Kwan is also in the midst of a massive slump, slashing a putrid .217/.300/.274 over his 121 plate appearances. The question with the Guardians has long been about who is going to support Ramirez and Kwan. However, at this precise moment, it’s those two mainstays that need to turn things around.
Tanner Bibee is another one of Cleveland’s “big name” players that has disappointed in the early going, coming into tonight’s matchup with a 4.45 ERA and a 4.65 FIP across 30.1 innings of work. However, most of that underwhelming ERA can be chalked up to a single nightmarish start in Atlanta, where Bibee surrendered eight earned runs and 11 hits. He’s actually thrown a quality start in each of his last two outings, a stretch where he’s only conceded two earned runs over 12.0 innings. I’d expect the good trends to continue in a meeting with the Rays. Tampa might be on a winning streak, but this lineup still has much to prove in terms of potency. To wit, the Rays rank dead-last in MLB in barrel rate (4.8) and expected wOBA on batted ball events (.336).
The Guardians are averaging 3.0 runs over their past five games, while the Rays rank dead-last in MLB in barrel rate (4.8) and expected wOBA on batted ball events (.336). Look for both Martinez and Bibee to work deep in this one.
Not only does Martinez own a 20th percentile strikeout rate (16.4%), but Cleveland ranks in the bottom-third of the league in strikeout rate (21.1%) and swinging strike rate (9.7%).
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