Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Wednesday’s FIFA World Cup match between Morocco and Haiti.
When it became the first African team ever to reach the World Cup semifinals in 2022, Morocco was a nice underdog story. Now, four years later, the Atlas Lions are a top-10 team in the world, preparing to host the tournament in 2030, and making at least the quarterfinals is the expectation.
Victory over Haiti at 6 p.m. ET in Atlanta could help Morocco win its group, but it’ll need some help to do so. Because the Atlas Lions drew with Brazil and the Seleçao have a superior goal difference, they’d need to beat the Grenadiers by a margin greater than that of Brazil over Scotland. In the Round of 32, the group winner will play whichever team finishes second in Group F (Netherlands or Japan), and the runner-up will face the winner of that group. Haiti has already been eliminated.
Morocco is a -575 favorite to claim all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Grenadiers are +1600. There are +650 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this potential Group C decider and provide my favorite bet.
The Atlas Lions demonstrated early on in this tournament that they weren’t an underdog anymore; they controlled most of the momentum in the first half against Brazil and Ismael Saibari put them ahead in the 21st minute before an individual moment of brilliance from Vinicius Júnior tied the score. They also started off hot against Scotland, as Saibari scored in the second minute, and they kept the pressure on despite never finding an equalizer. Meanwhile, Haiti’s better game was its opener, as it consistently pushed the Tartan Army and was arguably unlucky not to finish one. The Seleçao proved far too tough in the second game. The sole objective this evening for the Grenadiers will be to score their first goal at this World Cup, although they scored two in their only prior appearance in 1974.
Morocco primarily won through its defense in 2022, but now, it has become a much more well-rounded side, with playmakers at every level. In 2024, the Atlas Lions secured Real Madrid winger Brahim Díaz’s services, and he won the Golden Boot in this past winter’s Africa Cup of Nations. Saibari is headed to Bayern Münich after helping PSV Eindhoven to three consecutive Eredivisie titles, and 18-year-old midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi is one of Ligue 1’s rising stars. Across its first two matches, Morocco has ranked merely near the middle of the pack in expected goals per match, but it’s done well to attempt 13 shots per match and to complete 75.3% of its passes in the final third, so that production should rise once it gets more shots on target. Additionally, the Atlas Lions have been typically tremendous defensively, giving up just 0.89 expected goals per match and recording among the most tackles despite largely controlling possession. Achraf Hakimi is the undisputed best right-back in the world, and Yassine Bounou, always a riser for his country, has been brilliant, ranking 13th in goals prevented rate. Neil El Aynaoui ranks fifth in tackles per 90 minutes among players with at least 100 minutes played.
Haiti absolutely has the talent to produce at least one moment of magic. Though the Grenadiers haven’t yet found the back of the net this tournament, Sunderland’s Wilson Isidor netted six goals in the Premier League this season and Frantzdy Pierrot was a regular starter in the Greek Super League as recently as 2024/25. Haiti consistently kept the pressure on against the Tartan Army and had its moments against the Seleçao, managing 0.64 expected goals per match, though like Morocco, it has struggled to get the ball on target. The Grenadiers have also completed their passes at a respectable rate, so it wouldn’t be a massive shock if they generated at least a few decent chances. Haiti has also had about an average defense, allowing 1.40 expected goals per 90 minutes, and it’s only allowed 17 total shots (though 16 game in the box). Plus, while their physical defense means the Grenadiers have drawn the most fouls and committed the second-most, they’ve done an excellent job defending set pieces and generated the third-most high turnovers leading to a shot. They certainly haven’t been good, but to be the first team eliminated from the competition required a stroke of bad luck.
The Atlas Lions should win this one, but as promising Saibari and Díaz are as prospects and as good as Hakimi is moving forward, I’m not sure that their attack is good enough to overturn Brazil’s goal difference edge. There’s some misfortune in their low on-target rates and cross completion relates that should normalize at some point, but even in their AFCON triumph, they only scored more than two goals against Zambia, a team ranked just 90th in the world. Additionally, while Haiti gives up a lot of set pieces, Morocco hasn’t been good at converting them. The Atlas Lions’ defensive stability and clean play should allow them to hold the Grenadiers off the score sheet, but Haiti’s defense will deny them the group’s top spot. I’ll take a 2-0 score line for Morocco and a one-goal win for Brazil.
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