The Red Sox and Yankees are set to close out their series at Fenway Park on Thursday night. Sam Connon shares his picks and predictions in regards to Boston’s starting pitcher, Payton Tolle, and his strikeout props.
The Boston Red Sox are hosting the New York Yankees on Thursday, with first pitch set for 6:10 p.m. ET. Payton Tolle will take the bump for the Red Sox, facing off against Yankees youngster Cam Schlittler at Fenway Park. Looking at the odds, lines and Tolle’s strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the rookie could perform in his first big league outing of the season. And since I am 14-for-19 on individual strikeout props so far in the 2026 regular season, I feel pretty good about this bet hitting too.
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Tolle’s strikeouts thrown line set at 4.5 for Thursday’s contest against the Yankees.
The Red Sox called Tolle up from Triple-A on Thursday, optioning Eduardo Rivera to free up space on the active roster. He will take over Sonny Gray’s spot in the rotation while the veteran nurses a hamstring strain. The 23-year-old is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.067 WHIP and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings through three minor league starts this season.
While Thursday will mark Tolle’s 2026 debut, he got a taste of the big leagues down the stretch back in 2025. After going 3-5 with a 3.04 ERA, 0.993 WHIP and 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings in his first minor league campaign, the lefty made three starts and four relief appearances with Boston in the final month of the regular season. Tolle went 0-1 with a 6.06 ERA, 1.592 WHIP, 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a -0.3 WAR, although he did retire the lone batter he faced in the AL Wild Card Series against the Yankees. Taking out his two messy starts on September 5 and 10, Tolle owns a ERA, 1.200 WHIP and 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings across 11.2 far cleaner frames in a Red Sox uniform.
Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, Tolle is projected to go 4-4 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 66 strikeouts and 0.9 WAR across 11 starts, seven relief appearances and 68.0 innings in the remainder of the 2026 season.
After racking up eight strikeouts in 5.1 innings in his MLB debut on August 29, 2025, Tolle failed to break 4.5 strikeouts in each of his ensuing seven trips onto the mound. Of course, that can mostly be attributed to the Red Sox bumping the southpaw to the bullpen during the playoff push. In his final two outings of Spring Training, Tolle posted seven and five strikeouts, respectively, in just 3.0 and 4.0 innings of action. He has also gone for six, seven and six strikeouts in his three minor league starts.
Based on his strikeout efficiency last year, plus his red-hot finish to Spring Training and equally impressive start to the Triple-A season, I think Tolle will only need to complete 4.0 innings in order to go over 4.5 strikeouts Thursday night. The Yankees’ 105 OPS+ is above average, but nothing too scary, not to mention the fact that they only plated four runs in each of the first two games of the current series against the Red Sox. Connelly Early and Ranger Suárez lasted 5.1 and 4.2 innings, respectively. New York’s lineup is also averaging the seventh-most strikeouts per game, so they are certainly susceptible of going down by way of the K.
Seven of the 11 runs Tolle has allowed at the big-league level have come off home runs. If he can keep the Yankees from going yard, I think Tolle strings together a solid, somewhat lengthy outing. If he manages to do that, the strikeouts will follow. Early and Suárez each finished with four punchouts earlier in the series, and Tolle has a far more dangerous fastball that can put him over the top when it comes to generating whiffs against an aggressive New York lineup.
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